Harwood Wealth (“HW”) has updated on recent acquisition activity: it has secured three targets from the pipeline, with £1.8m total consideration. We leave our forecasts unchanged. HW has developed through a careful mix of small and medium-sized acquisitions. There are further acquisition opportunities under consideration which can be funded from cashflow and balance sheet resources. Alongside embedded growth from acquisitions already made and being integrated, we believe this is not recognised in the current 12x Oct-19 PER, falling to 10x Oct-20, which is attractive.
Companies: Harwood Wealth Management
HW has reported in line interim results with 28% adj. EBITDA growth leaving our FY19e forecast well covered (48%). We make no changes to forecasts. 5 acquisitions have been completed year to date, with a further 10 at varying stages of progress. A £7m credit facility has been secured, which we think is an optimal route to fund further acquisitions. The shares trade at a discounted 13x PER falling to 10.5x, with potential earnings upside. We think a 160p/share intrinsic value is more appropriate (17x PER).
Harwood Wealth has posted in line final results. Adj. EBITDA is as expected: £6.1m vs N+1Se £6.0m. Earnings growth is strong, reflecting organic growth and annualising acquisitions. Nine bolt ons were completed in the year, a further one announced today, with 2 at signed heads and a further 6 in advanced stages. We do not change our earnings forecasts but take this opportunity to issue maiden FY21 estimates. Shares are trading at an attractive multiple (15x) below the sector before a consolidation premium. A 17x FY19e PER would imply a 160p/share intrinsic value.
Circassia Pharma (CIR.L) - specialty pharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease transferring from the Main Market. No funds being raised. Due 4 Feb.
Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected late January 2019.
Chaarat Gold Holdings—RTO, the Company intends to acquire Kapan Mining and Processing CJSC, which owns the Shahumyan mediumsized polymetallic mine in Kapan in the Republic of Armenia. No raise, market cap of £110.1m, due early Feb
Companies: BLOE SOG HAT HW/ ESC EMR SCLP 9537 HOTC EYE
Kropz, an emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa, a phosphate project in the Republic of Congo and exploration assets in Ghana, is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected late Nov
Titon holdings—international manufacturer and supplier of ventilation systems and window and door hardware. No capital raise. Due 10 Dec. Mkt cap c.£22m.
Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD
Finncap—proposed acquisition of M&A adviser Cavendish Corporate Finance and AIM admission. Offer TBA. Due early Dec
Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is investigating the possibility of AIM admission. The Company is proposing to raise up to £2.25 million before the end of December, conditional on Admission.
The Panoply parent company of a digitally native technology services group founded in 2016 with the aim of identifying and acquiring best-of-breed specialist information technology and innovation consulting businesses across Europe, is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected late November 2018.
Companies: BMV HW/ KGH PLUS TPG 9537 CHRT IKA MNO BRD
Harwood Wealth (HW/ LN) Appointment of Gillian Davies as Interim CFO | Lookers (LOOK LN) Resilient H1 PBT given comp, on track to revert to PBT growth in H2
Companies: Harwood Wealth Management Lookers
Sensyne Investments - healthcare technology company that creates value from accelerating the discovery and development of new medicines and improving patient care. Raising £60m. Mkt Cap £225m. Due 17 Aug.
Path Investments (PATH) -RTO of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Offer TBA. Due late Aug.
Vitesse Media (VIS) — To be renamed Bonhill Group. RTO of the trade and assets of InvestmentNews, a Business Information and Data & Insight brand supporting the US financial adviser and wealth manager community Due 17 Aug. Raising £18.6m at 80p. Mkt cap £26.7m.
Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
Companies: NANO VAST NSCI TERN DMTR SAVE HW/ EVR FDBK PVG
Dunelm Group (DNLM LN) Kiddicare - competitor closures and sales transfer | Harwood Wealth (HW/ LN) Interims in line, returns from consolidation continue |
Companies: Dunelm Group Harwood Wealth Management
Harwood Wealth (“HW”) has reported in line interim results. AuI/M has grown as a product of an organic and acquisitive strategy, which has driven revenue (+44%) and earnings (adj. EBITDA +50%). H1 adj. EBITDA totals 50% of N+1Se FY18e. We leave our forecasts unchanged, but tweak the dividend down by 4-11%. HW has completed 69 acquisitions to date (9 H1’18) and has 18 at non-binding heads of terms. We believe the current 18.5x FY19e PER rating is attractive as the strategy continues to deliver.
Harwood Wealth (“HW”) has provided an update summarising all acquisitions in H1. Nine acquisitions have been completed with £310m additional AuI. Consideration payable totals £10.9m, but part of this will be paid in coming years and is contingent on performance. We do not change our forecasts at this stage with these acquisitions providing only a partial contribution in FY18e. We note an attractive 16x PER (ex-free cash available to make acquisitions). HW will announce interims on 3rd July 2018.
Abzena (ABZA LN) Forecast update | Carclo (CAR LN) Review completed, reassuring outlook | Driver Group (DRV LN) Continued earnings momentum | Fulcrum Utility Services Limited (FCRM LN) In line results; Positive outlook supported by strong order book growth | Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) Good H1 18, well set for H2 and beyond | Harwood Wealth (HW/ LN) 9 H1 acquisitions adding £310m AuI, forecasts unch | Renold (RNO LN) Cautiously optimistic | Vp (VP/ LN) A year of significant growth and strategic progress | WYG (WYG LN) Signs of stability in H218; FY19 guidance maintained
Companies: ABZA CAR DRV FCRM GHH HW/ RNO VP/ WYG
Consumer Sector Key takeaways from the Consumer reporting season | Harwood Wealth (HW LN) Acquisition of Berkshire-based IFA with £34m AuI | Porta Communications (PTCM LN) Results show progress from reorganisation | Sanderson Group (SND LN) H1 slightly ahead, no change to full year expectations | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) FY’17 results in line, US sales team established for Silhouette rollout
Companies: HW/ PTCM SND SPH
Bioquell (BQE LN) In line trading despite FX headwinds | Carador Income Fund (CIFU LN) Significant reset activity post expiration of US risk retention appeal | Driver Group (DRV LN) Sale and leaseback in line with strategy | Harwood Wealth (HW LN) Acquires retirement solutions specialist Plan65 | Midatech Pharma (MTPH LN) FY results in line with expectations, US ops achieve EBITDA breakeven | River and Mercantile Group (RIV LN) AuM +1.1%, -5% EPS forecasts; resilience remains | Safestyle UK (SFE LN) New competitor impacts forecasts as we feared might be the case | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) Further supportive data from PhaseOut DMD unveiled
Companies: BQE DRV HW/ MTPH RMMC SFE SUMM CIFU
Avast, global cybersecurity provider with 435m users worldwide. In 2017, the Group's Adjusted Billings was $811 million, Adjusted Revenue was $780 million, Adjusted Cash EBITDA was $451 million. Seeking to raise $200m. Due in May | Fundamentum Supported Housing REIT. Raising £150m. Focussed on UK Social Housing assets. Due 2 May | Vivo Energy—retailer and marketer of Shell-branded fuels and lubricants in Africa, Due in May. 100% secondary sell-down of existing Shares by Selling Shareholders, No new Money. Pricing TBA | Gore Street Energy Storage Fund—Seeking to raise £100m for the purposes of investment in a diversified portfolio of utility scale energy storage projects. Due 03 May | Odyssean Investment Trust—Raising £100m at £1. Due 1 May. The Company will primarily invest in smaller company equities
quoted on markets operated by the London Stock Exchange.
Companies: TAM SYS D4T4 PEL INFA ECHO BXP PAT HW/ DRV
Actual Experience (ACT LN) Large-scale deployment and reseller agreement validates opportunity | Dialight (DIA LN) AGM trading update – some progress on operational issues | Findel (FDL LN) PBT growth at upper end of expectations for FY18 | Gresham Technologies (GHT LN) Clareti contract win provides further evidence of positive momentum | Harwood Wealth (HW LN) Refining the board structure, FD stepping back | Lookers (LOOK LN) Vauxhall network changes could be helpful for partners long term
Companies: ACT DIA STU GHT HW/ LOOK
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AFH interim results have shown resilience in a tough period. Revenues grew by 5% yoy and Adj. EPS is up 8% yoy. We reduce our FY20 EPS forecast by 8% to reflect the wider market falls and slower new business due to the lockdown. This reduction in earnings is significantly less than peers, highlighting the defensive nature of the business and the prudent temporary cost measures being introduced in FY20. The improved FCF of the business should lead to a re-rating, particularly as AFH now trades on 9.3x CY20 P/E, a significant discount to peers. Our reduced target price of 524p implies 81% upside. Re-iterate BUY.
Companies: AFH Financial Group
Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX DNL GDR NSF PCA PIN PHNX PHP RE/ RECI STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA
Burford has announced its results for 2019. As previously indicated, these were lower than in the previous year. Revenue fell 17% from $430m in 2018 to $357m. Profit after tax, on Burford’s basis, declined 31% from $329m to $226m. As announced earlier, there will be no final dividend so only the interim dividend of ¢4.17 was paid for FY19. Unusually, Burford has also released a trading update for early 2020 alongside its main figures. Court results and arbitral awards have been obtained that would generate some healthy profits. Most notable is $200m in income ($300m in cash receipts) regarding which further legal review is unlikely.
Companies: Burford Capital
Aside from its FY 19 earnings presentation, British Land has adopted a more cautious anticipation about Offices in the City of London. We share this pessimism and have been surprised by the recent share’s bump. The latter is the opportunity to turn negative, again, and update our divestment case.
Companies: British Land Company
Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG LN) has today announced a trading update for the full year ending 31 March 2020. The unaudited NAV has risen 13% YoY to 116.7p, up 14.3% since the last published NAV of 102.2p as at 10 January 2020. This represents a like for like valuation uplift of 11.4%. All equity has been fully deployed and shareholder approval has been sought to increase net debt from 20% to 30%. Revenue is strong with £64.7m generating an EPS of 10.7p (more than 2x the annual 5p dividend target). NAV growth has been driven by revenue statements which were up 2%, and an increase in streaming growth rate assumptions by the independent valuers. The portfolio comprises 54 catalogues, with 13,291 individual songs, now valued at £757m which was acquired at purchase price of £697m on an acquisition multiple of 13.9x – now valued on 15.0x historical earnings.
Companies: Hipgnosis Songs Fund
The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the share price of property companies, with 31% wiped off the value of their total market capitalisation during the first quarter of 2020.
Companies: AEWU CREI CSH BOOT INL HLCL THRL SUPR RESI RGL DIGS GR1T SOHO PHP BOXE ASLI UTG AGR UAI BLND UANC CAL SHED CWD WHR EPIC WKP GRI YEW HMSO PCA INTU NRR
ULR’s finals were in line with on EPRA NAV and earnings a little better than expected. Valuations remain stable and full rent collection has been achieved for the current quarter. We see fundamental quality and resilience in the (now expanded) portfolio – ULR has already invested nearly £100m in the first two months of the new year following the £136m equity raise. We make no material changes to forecasts. Current valuation points to an 7%+ annualised return, with upside remaining from deployment of funding headroom, active management and potential for valuations to improve.
Companies: Urban Logistics REIT
TCS has confirmed it will pay the previously announced interim dividend of 3.25p. A number of mitigating actions to preserve cash ensures that this is affordable. We estimate the £1.7m payment is less than 10% of cash and available facilities, which should be little changed from the April update. Rent collection levels of 75%, or 86% including deferrals, is resilient under the circumstances. There are also optimistic signs from Europe that people will be shopping in material numbers from 15 June. TCS will have all locations safely open from that date. We lower our NAV forecasts c.2%, mostly for the dividend payment, but also for a tougher outlook for CitiPark. Official guidance understandably remains withdrawn. The shares currently price in a c. 30% decline in underlying property values, which we think is excessive. On this basis, we see upside to the share price, setting it at 235p, still a c. 25% discount to NAV while short-term visibility is low. BUY
Companies: Town Centre Securities
Ramsdens has reported a strong set of trading results in the last twelve months to March 2020. COVID lockdown has led to store closures, which will lead to weaker trading over the following months. However, Ramsdens has a very solid balance sheet, is diversified and is well positioned to re-open stores and continue its growth. We use an 8x multiple on last 12 months to March 2020 earnings as a reflection of a normalised earnings base which reduces our target price to 162p from 180p. At this target price Ramsdens would trade on a CY20 P/B of 1.5x. This target price offers 15% upside and we re-iterate BUY.
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGR CSH ESP DIGS IHR LXI PHP RESI SIR SUPR THRL SOHO BBOX SHED WHR
Today’s FY update reports that the decisive action taken at the outset of the COVID crisis has protected returns. Revenues held up through to the May year end. Aided by cost savings, adj. EBITDA is expected to be 20% ahead. We expect a more modest final dividend to protect the capital surplus. Additional savings have been outlined, which we overlay on a conservative “flat market/fewer new clients” scenario for FY21e – where we hope outperformance is possible. Updating EPS forecasts: FY20e +25%, FY21e -10% and FY22e -7%; also incorporating the Hurley Partners acquisition (+8%). We consider MW a high quality core holding with long term potential.
Companies: Mattioli Woods
Today's update confirms Equals delivered another quarter of significant revenue growth YoY, delivered by organic and acquisitive means. Performance across the product range has varied unsurprisingly and we expect these trends to continue over Q2/20E. Given the great uncertainty over the duration and severity of COVID-19's impact on the group, we withdraw FY20-21E forecasts and place our recommendation Under review, awaiting further clarity. Equals is supported by a strong, debt-free, balance sheet and is undertaking measures to further conserve cash.
Companies: Equals Group
Tetragon Financial Group (TFG, Tetragon) achieved a 13.6% NAV/share total return and a 13.4% ROE in FY19, in line with its long-term target of 10–15%. The main driver of Tetragon’s performance was its asset management business (TFG Asset Management), which comprises managers with a total AUM attributable to Tetragon of US$27.4bn and generated an EBITDA of US$59.5m in FY19 (up 51% y-o-y). The late-2019 investment activity left Tetragon with a relatively low net cash position (4.1% of NAV at end-April). The shares trade at a three-year average discount to NAV of 44% (currently at 62.7%), which is relatively wide compared to peers given the company’s track record of delivering a 16% NAV TR pa over the last 10 years. The recent market sell-off has so far resulted in a 5.1% decrease in NAV (ytd to end-April 2020).
Companies: Tetragon Financial Group
MJ Hudson has confirmed that it expects to achieve profits in line with expectations for FY20E. This is a good result linked to new client wins during the COVID-19 disruption and timely cost management. Whilst much of the group's activities are proving resilient, uncertainty remains and in line with most of the peer group, MJ Hudson is withdrawing guidance for FY21E. We similarly withdraw our FY21E forecasts until visibility improves, moving our rating to Under Review. Meanwhile, the shares are now down 30% since their pre-COVID-19 highs, which is beyond that seen at outsourcing peers (Sanne, JTC). Whilst COVID-19 is presenting challenges for many businesses, we believe that: 1) the structural growth drivers in alternatives that underpin MJ Hudson's growth will continue to remain highly relevant, and 2) its strong balance sheet gives it a relative advantage.
Companies: MJ Hudson Group
Picton Property Income has completed a new £50m revolving credit facility (RCF) to replace two existing facilities that were due to expire in June 2021. Although initially undrawn, the facility maintains operational and financial flexibility, for a longer duration, at a slightly reduced cost. We expect FY20 results to be released later in June, although no date has been confirmed, including an update on the impact of COVID-19. The company entered this period of acute economic and sector uncertainty with a strong and liquid balance sheet and material internal asset management opportunities to support income and capital values.
Companies: Picton Property Income