Liontrust’s FY23 outturn will be ahead of prior market expectations at “no less than £86m adj. PBT” (vs SCMe £82.8m) on £17m performance fees; +5% vs prior FY23e. AuM declined by 3.6% qoq to £31.4bn on £2.0bn net inflows as challenging sentiment continued, although there were ~£750m across two mandate losses. AuM has ticked up to £31.8bn in April on better performance. We incorporate lower AuM and moderate H1’24 flows which drives a ~10% reduction to u/l FY24e/FY25e EPS, but revise our performance fee assumptions up to a more realistic £10m estimate (max 6% adj. PBT). All told, our EPS changes: +5% FY23e/-5% FY24e/-7% FY25e. We set a 1510p 12m Target Price (from 1650p) using 16x FY24e PER BUY. As an aside, we note yesterday’s news that Liontrust is in discussions around a potential transaction with GAM we see potential to enhance the range and distribution, capturing synergies.
