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  • 11 Mar 2025

Thoughts post strategy update: earnings growth now in sight?


Schroders PLC (SDR:LON) | 375 -2.3 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 6,045m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Giblat Arnaud GA | Simpson Gregory GS | Vaysselier Nicolas NV | Kenyon Tyler TK

    • 18 pages


 

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Thoughts post strategy update: earnings growth now in sight?


Schroders PLC (SDR:LON) | 375 -2.3 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 6,045m


  • Published: 11 Mar 2025
  • Author: Giblat Arnaud GA | Simpson Gregory GS | Vaysselier Nicolas NV | Kenyon Tyler TK
  • Pages: 18
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Better addressing previous problems... Schroders has positioned itself well for an evolving asset management industry. However, the criticism is this has come at a cost: we estimate over the last decade Schroders'' AUM has grown ~140% but EBIT has actually declined in this period. We thus see a clearer plan of action on costs as the key positive from the strategy update: GBP150m of cost savings or ~8% of the cost base. We lay out peer benchmarking analysis and estimate Schroders had a cost/AUM ratio of 28bp in 2024 vs. 21bp at abrdn, 18bp at DWS and 9bp at BlackRock, and so better delivery does feel credible. ...and pragmatic messaging on traditional asset management revenues Schroders targets stabilising public market revenues 24-27E, perhaps surprising vs. various consultancies forecasting growth in active revenues. We think this is a pragmatic reflection of sector challenges including continued fee erosion. Equally, Schroders (and our benchmarking) make a good case for their fund performance, and we note exposure to US equities is limited (and they could thus benefit if global investor interest does see some ex-US shift). Delivering mutual fund inflows through 2024, still a tough year for the industry, shows a franchise that is not broken. A number of higher quality areas in the mix including wealth, private markets and JVs Around a quarter of profits come from the wealth business which we show is growing faster than a number of peers (5-7% net flow target) and has sticky assets with low fee pressure. Schroders Capital also has exposure to some decent niches in private markets, with good performance. Lastly there could be value longer term in the JVs Schroders has in China and India, although there are no imminent plans for monetisation (we value at GBP0.5bn in SOTP vs. Schroders suggesting GBP2bn+). Increasing estimates and TP, Outperform reiterated The FY24 results (small beat) and cost messaging drives our 26/27 EPS estimates up 4-9%. We up our TP to...

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