We have explored Arbuthnot’s Strategic “Future State” vision unveiled at the time of FY 2020 results on 26 March. We have also revised our forecasts, which should bring us broadly into line with consensus. The new strategy entails a reallocation of capital resources away from the Core Bank, which is the engine of low-cost deposits, and into the higher yielding specialist lending subsidiaries. The company seeks to improve profitability through this repositioning of the balance sheet from an RoTE
Companies: Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC
For investors, the UK telecoms sector has presented immense challenges. Having boomed in the 1990s, mainly on the back of mobile telephony growth rates, telecom shares subsequently fell back sharply, as major debt concerns predominated. With Cable & Wireless (C & W) having exited, the UK sector now consists of little more than British Telecom (BT), privatised in 1984, and Vodafone, which was founded in the early 1980s.
Companies: ARBB BBGI CLIG FLTA OCI PCA PIN RECI SPO SCE VTA YEW
The key highlights from the FY’20 results were a small loss (as expected), with breakeven excluding deal costs. Margin pressure (from base-rate cuts) and a £2m rise in impairments, despite there being zero higher-risk Stage 2/3 property exposures over 80% LTV (2019 over £30m), were the main drivers. The 2021 outlook is for i) a strong recovery, driven by loan volume growth, ii) less pain from excess liquidity, iii) profits generated by Asset Alliance after acquisition (completed end-March, which
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are fa
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
FY 2020 results, for the period ended 31 December, were published on 25 March and confirmed 2020 was a challenging year, impacted by pandemic lockdowns and base rate compression. A pre-tax loss of £1.1m compared to a profit of £7.0m in 2019. The loan book contracted slightly as weak demand met tighter risk appetite and impairments increased sharply reflecting IFRS 9 forward-looking provision build. No dividend or discretionary staff bonuses are to be paid in respect of 2020. None of this should
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positive
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BVC BEG BRSD BWNG CBOX CTG CLG CML CWK EYE ECHO EML ESC FBD FA/ GSF HTWS INSE JDG MACF MTW NESF NAVF NSF NBI OTMP PCF PPC QFI SAVE SEN SNX TGL UTL VLS WYN
UK railway privatisation, which was launched in the mid-1990s, has finally turned full circle: the Department of Transport has recently confirmed that its controversial railway franchise system will be scrapped.
In this month's feature article, Nigel Hawkins, the Infrastructure analyst at Hardman & Co, examines the 25-year history of railway privatisation and chronicles its ups and its downs. The successes of railway privatisation, such as new rolling stock, are addressed, along with the ma
Companies: ARBB BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PXC RECI SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Looking Ahead At The Next Week
In the past two years, since Hardman & Co first started to target the IC sector, we have heard many managers of ICs and boards talk of the growth of the retail investor on their registers. Many have approached Hardman & Co for help in addressing this market, since we have a unique strength in this field relative to other providers.
Companies: AVO ARBB BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX TRX VTA YEW
Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are consi
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
We highlighted last month the (first) Santa Rally arrived early (unlike some other festive gifts). The second Claus(e) relief rally was prompted by the agreement between the European Commission and the UK on its future cooperation with the EU. Markets also reacted positively to the $900bn stimulus package agreed in the US. While the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices rose by 1.6% and 1.7% respectively on the first trading day after the holiday and the FTSE 100 has recovered 28% from its low point in
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BVC BEG BWNG CGI CLG CML EYE ECHO EPWN ESC FA/ GDWN GSF GNC HUW INSE KAPE KP2 NRR NBI NUC OTMP PPC QFI RQIH RUA SAVE SEN SNX TOU TXP TGL UPGS
We have long argued that ABG’s strong funding and capital position give it a competitive advantage in doing cheap deals in uncertain markets. On 10 December 2020, ABG announced the acquisition of Asset Alliance (AA), a vehicle finance and related services provider, predominantly in the truck & trailer and bus & coach markets. The expected consideration is £4.1m, against an NAV of £8.1m (with acquisition adjustments, the expected negative goodwill (an equity uplift) is £1.7m)). AA has leases with
President Trump likes to project himself as a highly successful businessman, but surprisingly little is known about his true financial position. Various articles, including a 2016 in-depth analysis by The Wall Street Journal, have speculated about his income and asset base. All sorts of claims and counter-claims have been made about his wealth – by Trump himself, pitching his fortune at some $9bn, and by journalist Timothy O'Brien, suggesting that it is as “low” as $150m-$250m. It is doubtful wh
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC.
We currently have 98 research reports from 5
Agronomics is an investment company, making selective investments in early-stage alternative protein companies. We believe the combination of the conservative approach to calculating a reported net asset value (NAV) and growing interest in the broader alternative protein and cultured meat opportunities has resulted in Agronomics' shares trading at a c320% premium to its latest reported NAV per share value. Our analysis suggests that not only can this premium be justified but that upside exists b
Companies: Agronomics Limited
NextEnergy Solar’s NAV reflects a reduction in long term pricing offset by continued operating outperformance. While long term pricing remains an issue across the renewable yieldco sector, we continue to see NESF as better placed thanks to its non-amortising debt. It is also showing that its energy sales relationship with NextEnergy Capital is delivering strong hedging positions which should benefit the company going forward. On top of this the company has a range of opportunities to develop and
Companies: Nextenergy Solar Fund
NextEnergy Solar Fund’s (NESF) NAV has declined to 98.9p, as at 31 March 2021, from 100.7p as at 31 December 2020, after incorporating a further reduction in power price forecasts provided by NESF’s three independent consultants (-2.1p per share) and an expected rise in the UK corporation tax rate rising to 25% from 2023 (-1.8p per share). These were partly offset by NESF’s operating outperformance, the acquisition of the 100MW Camden portfolio which was financed by a drawdown on the existing cr
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in spor
Companies: ADME RTC SAV DFCH HUW TEG ANIC KOO MIRI SPSY
Gore Street continues to develop its portfolio with the acquisition of a 80MW project in the GB market and a 300MW expansion of its exclusive development pipeline. Extended revenue opportunity in Ireland and well optimised assets in the UK give us confidence that the company can maximise value from this larger portfolio.
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
Full-year results to 31 December 2020 show the value of recurring revenues amid the global pandemic, bolstered by technology investment permitting improved operational efficiency. The flexible annuity pipeline remains significant, though the pandemic has caused slow conversion of leads. A UK-focussed acquisition pipeline continues to form a key part of the investment thesis and a post-period exit from the trusts sector has freed up capital to allow the company to pursue this strategy with the re
Companies: STM Group PLC
Today's news & views, plus announcements from CPG, DGE, FLTR, MSLH, PHP, TUI, UDG, ULE, RQIH, VTU
Companies: Primary Health Properties PLC (PHP:LON)Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd. (RQIH:LON)
In addition to successfully executing a high volume of transactions for clients in the first half, Numis continues to plan investment to strengthen and broaden its capabilities to support longer-term growth through market cycles. With over 60% of transaction fee income in H120 coming from outside the retained client base there is evidence that the company is succeeding in building a wider reputation.
Companies: Numis Corporation Plc
Companies: Pantheon International
Marlowe has released a positive FY21E trading update, with Adj EBITDA of £28m+ being comfortably ahead of our forecasts (£26.4m). FY22E has started well, with strong demand being seen across all business units. Boosted by recent acquisitions and continued organic growth, run-rate Adj EBITDA now stands at c£39m. The company has today also announced three bolt-on acquisitions. Given the strength of Marlowe's business model, in an industry underpinned by durable structural growth drivers, we believ
Companies: Marlowe Plc
Brewin Dolphin’s strategy to broaden its range of propositions and distribution channels to reach wider demographics has resulted in the delivery of a strong performance in 1H21. Adj. PBT of £47.0m was up 29% YoY driven by strong income growth and ongoing cost savings, leading to Adj. PBT margin of 23.5% (1H20:20.8%). The interim DPS is also up by 5% to 4.6p.Total discretionary fund inflows hit a record of £1.0bn in 2Q21 helped by the recent launch of Voyager funds while strong retention rates o
Companies: Brewin Dolphin Holdings PLC
Canyon Resources (CAY AU) – Minim Martap bauxite project mineral resource upgrade (Altus Strategies is invested in Canyon Resources)
Marvel Gold (MVL AU) A$0.05, Mkt Cap A$27m – Chilalo Graphite Project spin out (Altus Strategies holds a JV agreement with Marvel Gold)
Metal Tiger (MTR LN) – Drilling Commenced at KML copper project
Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) – Drilling confirms lateral and depth extensions to mineralisation at Palito
Companies: ALS SRB MTR CAY MVL
The key messages we take from RECI’s April’s quarterly investor updateand end-March 2021 factsheet are i) mark-to-market (MTM) writedowns in March 2020 proved overly conservative, and RECI has been making recoveries since, ii) with no defaults, RECI’s assets have proved highly resilient (this is no accident, but reflects the different way in which the assets are managed to other lenders, and iii) as expected, RECI’s bond portfolio provided significant liquidity at only a modest cost. Despite the
Companies: Real Estate Credit Investments
We initiate coverage of Parsley Box with a 220p share price target, implying 14% potential upside. Parsley Box is a small, dynamic, fast-growing company that delivers quality ambient ready meals direct to its customers, targeting the growing number of older and wealthy people in the UK. We expect Parsley Box to break into EBITDA profit and be cash-generative in 2022 and to grow rapidly thereafter. We would expect the valuation discount will narrow as it continues to deliver.
Companies: Parsley Box Group PLC
Primary Health Properties (PHP) has issued a trading update covering the three months to 31 March 2021 (Q121). The existing portfolio continues to perform well, as expected, and while acquisition activity has been light amid a highly competitive investment market, progress continues with rent reviews and asset management projects, forward-funded developments and the recently acquired direct development pipeline.
Companies: Primary Health Properties PLC