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22 May 2020
Close Brothers Group : An unsustainable valuation premium… - Hold

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Close Brothers Group : An unsustainable valuation premium… - Hold
Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON) | 500 44 1.8% | Mkt Cap: 752.8m
- Published:
22 May 2020 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
7 -
Ignoring the Banking Division (which, unfortunately, represents c.85% of the group) there are some strong performances buried within today’s Q3 IMS.
The Securities business (Winterflood) enjoyed daily average trading volumes of almost twice the level seen in H1 FY19, which suggests upside to existing divisional consensus expectations for FY20, (albeit small in a group context).
The Asset Management business was (obviously) impacted by adverse market movements, (we estimate c.8%, in-line with the market), hence a £0.9bn QoQ decline in managed assets to £11.8bn. YTD net inflows have been strong (+10%) albeit we think the Q3 performance (c.+2%) is more in-line with peers.
Within Banking, we think the further £0.09bn (1.3%) QoQ contraction in the loan book (Fig 1, page 2) is relatively unsurprising in the context of the lockdown (motor dealerships closed, lower invoice finance volumes etc), albeit some modest pick-up in Q4 FY20 is possible.
The impairment charge of £86.7m for Q3 FY20 takes the annualised impairment charge to c.2.1%, still below the 2009 peak which feels consistent with an improved asset mix. Despite the uncertain outlook, we continue to believe that Close Brothers will remain profitable (Fig 2, page 2), but we do expect the scale of impairments to trigger fresh FY20 consensus downgrades
We continue to regard Close Brothers’ capital position as “bullet-proof”. The CET1 capital ratio rose 0.5% QoQ to 13.9% vs a minimum regulatory requirement of 8.1%, and its liquidity position remains extremely robust.
On 1.3x FY20e tNAV, (Fig 3, page 3), Hold rec maintained, but our TP/forecasts are placed under review. Close Brothers has been the top performing UK bank in our coverage in 2020 year-to-date (Fig 4, page 3) which we see as unsustainable; we see materially better value elsewhere.