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21 Nov 2019
Close Brothers Group : Q1 FY20: Slow progress… - Hold

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Close Brothers Group : Q1 FY20: Slow progress… - Hold
Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON) | 500 44 1.8% | Mkt Cap: 752.8m
- Published:
21 Nov 2019 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
6 -
Loan growth of 0.9% QoQ to £7.7bn in Q1 FY20 was soft vs 1.9% in Q1 FY19, albeit unsurprising in the context of relatively slow market conditions in Close Brothers’ chosen markets. The Commercial segment contributed substantially all the growth, with Retail and Property broadly flat. After c.20% CAGR through the “glory years” of FY10-FY12 and after 5.7% in FY19, we currently forecast growth of 5.2/4.6/4.2% through FY20/21/22e (Fig 2, page 2).
The Net Interest Margin has seen a sustained decline from 9.8% in FY11 to 7.9% in FY19, but is described as “broadly stable” in the quarter. The impairment charge in FY19 was only 0.6% and, near-term, we anticipate only limited upward normalisation. It “increased modestly” in Q1 FY20.
After a 29% YoY fall in contribution from the Securities business in FY19, it “continued to see subdued investor activity”. This is unsurprising, albeit more broadly market volumes did recover in October. The divisional cost:income ratio rose to 79% in FY19; we do not expect any material recovery in FY20e.
More encouragingly, Asset Management net inflows in Q1 FY20 are described as “strong”, and with a partial offset from negative market movements, total client assets rose £0.1bn QoQ to £13.4bn. There is no comment on profitability or efficiency metrics; given significant investment spend, the divisional cost:income ratio rose to 82% in FY19.
Hold rec reaffirmed while our 1415p target price and forecasts are under review. We expect today’s statement to trigger further relatively modest cost-led consensus downgrades. However, the Conservative Party’s proposed cancellation of the previously announced cut in the rate of UK Corporation Tax from 19% to 17% will (presumably) trigger c.2.5% downgrades to EPS consensus in FY21/22. No conference call today.