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10 Mar 2020
Close Brothers Group : Slowing down… - Hold
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Close Brothers Group : Slowing down… - Hold
Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON) | 425 12.8 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 639.9m
- Published:
10 Mar 2020 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
7 -
Loan growth turned negative, down £30.5m (0.4%) HoH, which was primarily driven by a 4.2% contraction of the Property book, partially offset by 2.5% growth within Commercial, (Fig 1, page 2). Indeed, while loan growth had already slowed to 7%/6%/5% through FY17/18/19, after growth of just 0.9% in Q1 FY20, CBG suffered a net contraction of 1.3% in Q2 FY20.
A decline in NIM from 8.1% in H1 FY19 to 7.8% in H1 FY20 was consistent with the pre-close statement, in the context of which negative “jaws” within the Banking division were (as guided) inevitable (income +1%, costs +3%).
The impairment charge rose by £14.8m (68%) YoY to £36.7m, or 0.9% vs 0.6% in FY19, in the context of which Banking profit before tax fell by £15.7m (12%) YoY to £115.4m, (Fig 2, page 2).
The Asset Management and Securities businesses are small in a group context, but both offered significantly greater encouragement. Asset Management reported an impressive 12% net inflows (of £672m) and Operating Profit recovered by 17% YoY to £12.6m. Securities also saw a 14% YoY recovery in Operating Profit, and the outlook statement (unsurprisingly) references a “significant increase in volumes since the period end”.
Overall, underlying profit before tax declined by 9% YoY in H1 FY20 (Fig 3, page 3), entirely attributable to a lower contribution from the Banking division, for which the outlook statement is (as one might reasonably expect) notably cautious. ROTE fell from 18.8% in H1 FY19 to 16.0% in H1 FY20.
On 1.3x FY20e tNAV for ROTEs of 15.9%/15.0%/14.3% through FY20/21/22e (Fig 4, page 3), with a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%/6.3%/6.6%, Hold rec maintained; our target price (1395p) and forecasts are placed under review.
Presentation at 09:30 at 60 Victoria Embankment, London, EC4Y 0JP, or via https://webcasts.closebrothers.com/results/halfyearresults2020