This content is only available within our institutional offering.
01 Oct 2021
Close Brothers Group : Solid, but not exciting at current levels… - Hold
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Close Brothers Group : Solid, but not exciting at current levels… - Hold
Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON) | 416 -54.9 (-3.1%) | Mkt Cap: 625.6m
- Published:
01 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
11 -
FY21 earnings per share of 134.8p were marginally (0.1%/0.4%) ahead of FY18/FY19 levels (Fig 6, page 4). This reflected the support of a record £60.9m contribution from the Securities Division (Fig 1, page 1), up £40.9m (205%) vs FY19, broadly offsetting the impact of higher expenses and elevated impairments.
The Securities Division performance in FY21 was exceptional, but transaction volumes fell steadily through H2 FY21, and its contribution declined by 22% HoH in H2 FY21 (Fig 4, page 3). Seemingly, norrmalisation has begun?
The other particularly bright spot in CBG’s performance in FY21 was a jump in loan growth to 10.9%, after a 0.4% net contraction in FY20 (Fig 2, page 2). However, this primarily reflected the impact of £1.14bn of lending under Government-backed lending schemes (Fig 3, page 3), the contribution from which is now likely to fade; we model net loan growth of only 6.3% in FY22e.
In contrast to most UK bank peers, CBG’s stock of balance sheet provisions continued to build in H2 FY21 (Fig 9, page 6) albeit in large part reflecting higher charges in relation to the group’s Novitas lending, which has been discontinued. Coverage has now risen to 3.2% vs only 1.3% in H2 FY19.
The group impairment charge remained elevated at 1.1% in FY21 (Fig 8, page 5) although, with Novitas issues thought to be well provisioned, we model steady improvement to 0.8%/0.7%/0.7% through FY22/FY23/FY24e.
The group remains well capitalised (CET1 capital ratio 15.8% at 31 July 2021), and we model a progressive dividend of 64c/69c/74c through FY22/FY23/FY24e, a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%/4.4%/4.7%. However, with the shares already enjoying a premium valuation of 1.8x FY21 tNAV (Fig 10, page 7) for ROTEs of 15.4%/14.6%/13.9%, we retain a HOLD rec.