CBG clearly wishes to “draw a line” under the Novitas debacle. However, such is the scale of the additional charges signalled on Friday, “up to £90m” in H1 FY23 over and above the £24.8m provision taken for the 5 months to 31 Dec 2022, we expect the group to report a small loss in H1 FY23e (Fig 1, page 2). The group performance has also been impacted by a weak contribution from Securities division, only £1.7m in the 5 months to 31 Dec. We expect FY23e to represent its worst year ever (Fig 2, page 2); we forecast £7.0m/£12.3m for FY23/FY24e vs company-compiled consensus of £18m/£21m. With the Novitas portfolio to be written down to c.£60m at H1 FY23, we do not expect any further material provisions in subsequent periods. As such, we see the Banking division profitability bouncing back in FY24/FY25e. However, at a group level, we still see FY25e u/l PBT below FY22 (Fig 3, page 3). We expect the CET1 capital ratio to fall by c.100bps half-on-half to 13.6% in H1 FY23e, still above the group’s 12-13% target. As such, we would regard it as perfectly reasonable for management to “look through” weak FY23e earnings and pay a “maintained” 66.0p DPS in FY23e (Fig 4, page 3). We forecast 70.0p/74.0p in FY24/25e. With, we think credible, prospective dividend yields of 7.0%/7.5%/7.9% through FY23/FY24/FY25e we expect to see some level of “yield support” for the shares at the current level. CBG shares have fallen 17% in 10 trading days (Fig 7, page 5) and now trade on 1.0x FY23e tNAV which represents a sharp de-rating vs 2.5x during its “glory days” in FY15 (Fig 5, page 4). We forecast ROTEs of 5.6%/11.2%/11.5% through FY23/FY24/FY25e (Fig 6, page 4). We make EPS downgrades of 49%/3%/3% through FY23/FY24/FY25e; we are 52%/12%/19% below Bloomberg consensus. TP to 955p (from 1020p).