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30 May 2022
Close Brothers Group : Worth another look? - Buy

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Close Brothers Group : Worth another look? - Buy
Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON) | 500 44 1.8% | Mkt Cap: 752.8m
- Published:
30 May 2022 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
10 -
The Banking division remains pivotal to the fortunes of CBG, routinely contributing over 80% of group earnings. As such, a resumption of loan growth in Q3 FY22 (+1.8% QoQ) was welcome (Fig 1, page 1), albeit our modelled expectations of 5%/3%/3% growth for FY22/FY23/FY24e (Fig 2, page 2) remain modest.
After three exceptional half-years, in H1 FY22 the Securities Division posted its lowest contribution for six years, down 74% YoY to £8.8m (Fig 4, page 3). Although “trading income improved” in Q3 FY22, we cut our FY23/F24e Securities forecasts to c.7% of Group PBT (ex-Central Items) (Fig 3, page 3).
An impairment charge of c.1.4% in Q3 FY22 was (for us) a negative surprise, albeit this primarily reflected applying a 40% weighting to its downside scenario (previously 30%). At H1 FY22, it had already increased its balance sheet provisions to £304.0m, some £187.4m (161%) above pre-lockdown levels (Fig 5, page 4). The fact that the YTD P&L impairment charge ex-Novatis was only 0.5% offers hope that CBG’s u/l provisioning may remain in check; we model P&L impairment charges of 1.1%/0.9%/0.8% through FY22/FY23/FY24e.
With a solid CET1 capital ratio of 14.9% at Q3 FY22, we see little reason why a “generous” distribution policy should not be maintained. Our DPS forecasts of 66p/72p/78p for FY22/FY23/FY24e (Fig 6, page 4) imply a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%/6.5%/7.0%.
Relative to history, CBG’s premium rating has sharply compressed. P/tNAV is down from 2.5x in FY15 to 1.2x/1.1x/1.0x FY22/FY23/FY24e tNAV (Fig 7, page 5). Although our ROTE expectations of 13.0-13.5% through FY22-FY24e (Fig 8, page 5) are, perhaps, unremarkable, in absolute terms the shares appear supported. Buy rec maintained, albeit we reduce our EPS forecasts by 6%/7%/5% through FY22/FY23/FY24e and cut our TP to 1320p (from 1430p).