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28 Sep 2021
First Take: Close Brothers Group - FY21 results: Up with events…
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First Take: Close Brothers Group - FY21 results: Up with events…
Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON) | 432 -19 (-1.0%) | Mkt Cap: 651.0m
- Published:
28 Sep 2021 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
4 -
Marginal 0.5% u/L PBT “beat” vs INVe in H2 FY21…
Relative to our forecasts, u/l PBT of £142.2m in H2 FY21 represents a very small (0.5%) “beat”, with lower impairments fully compensating for a slight disappointment on revenues.
Relative to Bloomberg u/l PBT consensus, the H2 FY21 outturn notionally represents a 12.3% “beat”, albeit we would caution that both company-compiled and Bloomberg consensus figures appear “stale” to us. With broadly “in line” performances in Asset Management and Winterflood, the consensus beat is largely attributable to lower impairments within the Banking division.
Robust capital position and normalised dividend…
The CET1 capital ratio has strengthened from 14.1% in FY20 to 15.8% in FY21, largely reflecting (1) a combination of retained earnings following a return to profit (after recording a loss in H2 FY20) and (2) lower risk-weighted assets due to the de facto “substitution” of lending under the Government-backed CBILS scheme for traditional commercial lending.
Loan book growth, from £7.6bn in FY20 to £8.4bn in FY21 was primarily driven by CBILS, and represented CBG’s best year for growth since FY16. Without fresh support from Government-backed lending schemes, we expect the pace of loan growth to moderate in FY22e and beyond.
A final dividend of 42.0p (INVe: 44.0p, Bloomberg consensus: 40.5p) represents a 5% YoY increase vs FY20 and the FY21 dividend of 60p equates to a dividend yield of 3.8%.
Call at 09:30 today…
Call at 09:30, dial-in: +44 (0)20 3059 5875 (registration required) or via webcast.
Trading on 1.7x FY22e tNAV against our current ROTE forecasts of 15.5%/14.6%/14.1% for FY22/FY23/FY24e, CBG continues to enjoy a very significant valuation premium relative to peers. HOLD rec maintained, forecasts/TP under review.