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27 Sep 2022
First Take: Close Brothers Group - FY22: Winterflood drives 3% EPS miss
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First Take: Close Brothers Group - FY22: Winterflood drives 3% EPS miss
Close Brothers Group plc (CBG:LON) | 425 12.8 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 639.9m
- Published:
27 Sep 2022 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
5 -
Solid performance in Banking; weakness in Asset Management/Securities
FY22 Adjusted EPS fell 21% YoY to 111.5p, a 3% miss against company-compiled consensus (115.2p).
FY22 Adjusted Operating Profit of £234.8m represents a 13% YoY decline and a 3% miss against consensus, with a notably weaker performance in H2 FY22 (Fig 1, page 2).
The performance in Banking was solid. Operating profit rose 7% YoY to £227.2m, 1% ahead of consensus. NIM remained strong at 7.8% (up 10bps YoY), while an impairment charge of 1.2% reflected a disproportionate drag from the discontinued Novatis business without which the charge would have been only c.0.5%.
The Securities business (Winterflood) suffered a 77% YoY decline in operating profit to £14.1m, a 26% miss vs consensus, reflecting sharply lower trading volumes, which CBG characterises as ‘cyclical’. The Asset Management business saw an 8% YoY decline in Op Profit to £21.7m, a 13% consensus miss.
Capital strength supports increased dividend with, we think, more to come…
CBG reported a CET1 capital ratio of 14.6%, comfortably above its newly articulated target of 12-13%. Pleasingly, the FY22 full-year dividend was increased by 10% year-on-year to 66p (Fig 2, page 2) in line with us and 5% ahead of consensus. Moreover, the new 12-13% target, taken together with CBG’s stated intention to optimise its capital stack with AT1 issuance in due course, should, we believe, offer potential for additional capital return to shareholders over the coming years.
A small but welcome tax benefit ahead…
We note that, while last week’s cancellation of the planned Corporation Tax increase (from 19% to 25%) and cancellation of the planned surcharge reduction (from 8% to 3%) are largely a “wash”, the fact that small banks are set to retain an increased (£100m) surcharge “allowance” offers, we estimate, a c.1% benefit to the effective tax rate in FY23e and beyond.
On 1.1x FY22 tNAV for FY22 ROTE of 12.2%, Buy rec reaffirmed, TP/forecasts under review.