Stronger, albeit largely cyclical, cost inflation

The third-quarter results and the management’s updated guidance showed stronger-than-expected cost inflation. However, this inflation does not reflect a deterioration in efficiency as it is largely related to performance-related pay.

Recovery in profitability unlikely to calm down Ping An

The group posted a stronger-than-expected set of results driven by unexpected ongoing net interest margin widening and stronger non-interest income resilience. The RoTE upgrade comes with little surprise as new guidance is already largely factored in consensus expectations. The prolonged buy-back sends a positive signal but is unlikely to reduce Ping An’s pressure as the geopolitical risk remains intact.

UK Banks - Strong performance continues

Not enough for Ping An

The quarter enjoyed strong FICC revenues and benign asset quality trends, making the RoTE target easy to achieve this year. On the other hand, the company also confirmed that interest rate tailwinds are behind us – hence no upgrade to the short-term profitability target. Ping An immediately stated that it was not impressed by the results.

SHORE CAPITAL - Initial Trading Comments - 13 March 2023

Management more cautious than consensus

The fourth quarter results came in above expectations, driven by stronger revenues and tax gains. On the other hand, the upgraded 2023 RoTE guidance not only does not come as a surprise but stands below consensus expectations, due to higher-than-expected cost inflation. We are not in the same position as we set (too) cautious forecasts.

Ongoing Asian refocusing

The disposal of the Canadian operations makes sense not only from an industrial and a financial standpoint, but also geopolitically. The divestment and the likely reinvestment of a portion of the proceeds in Asia will please Ping An, even if it does not meet its request of making the Chinese operations Western-sanctions proof.

Downgraded 2023 guidance

The group posted a strong set of quarterly results, in line with the consensus’ full-year guidance. However, the management’s updated guidance stands below the consensus expectations, driven by the USD appreciation and, above all, cost inflation and a higher cost of risk.

Canada’s disposal will not solve the governance issue

We see the potential sale of the group’s Canadian operations as business as usual, not as a move aimed to reducing Ping An’s pressure for a separate listing of the Asian business.

Upgraded RoTE objective

The second quarter results were not that impressive in our view. However, the management’s upgraded RoTE objective signals a strong profitability improvement ahead, driven by rising yields.

HSBC’s largest shareholder supports a spinoff

The revival of the spinoff of the group’s Asian operations makes little sense from an investor standpoint in our view. On the other hand, it could make sense to prepare for the potential implications of the emergence of a bipolar world.

More confident about achieving the 2023 objectives

The group posted a reassuring set of results. Management’s reiterated guidance for both 2022 and 2023 confirms that, if central banks do not overreact, inflation will create a supportive environment making the 2023 financial objectives easier to achieve.

UK REITs: Building back better

UK commercial property has been a cornerstone asset for many income-seeking investors (both retail and institutional) in recent decades, particularly since the global financial crisis of 2007/8 and the resulting ultra-low interest rate environment. However, since rates began to rise in 2022 to tackle surging inflation, meaningful returns have once more become available on lower-risk assets such as cash and government bonds, which has led to a retrenchment from alternative income assets such as p

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Chesnara (CSN): Good 2023 results set platform for future progress

Chesnara has announced its 2023 results. Positive returns from equity markets and gains from acquisitions in the first half were somewhat offset by adverse changes to operating assumptions in the second. Economic Value profit of £59.1m marked a good turnaround from a loss of £85.1m in 2022. Economic Value of £524.7m was 2% higher than a year ago, reflecting the dividend payment and forex effects. The final dividend of 15.61p brought the full year up to 23.97p, a 3% increase over the previous yea

NextEnergy Solar Fund - Second Refinancing Delivered

NextEnergy Solar Fund has extended its £70m revolving credit facility by a year to June 2025 and improved the margin by 10bps. Along with the refinancing of £135m announced in April the move shows a willingness amongst lenders to support solar energy and storage on attractive terms in our view.

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund - Responding to challenging times

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID) is the largest UK fund investing in utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS). A recent sharp decline in gas prices, a ‘disappointing’ start to the Energy System Operator’s (ESO’s) new energy trading platform and systemic delays connecting completed projects to the national grid have raised concerns about the revenue generating capacity of the BESS sector. This has placed significant downward pressure on the share prices of GRID and others in th

PCI Pal - +25% FY23 revenue growth, FY24 growth of +28% reiterated

PCI Pal’s FY23 results show revenue growth of +25% to £14.9m, gross profit growth of +31% to £13.1m at a margin of 88%, and an outlook confirming robust momentum in H1 24. The FY23 results are as expected following the August trading update, and FY23 Total Annual Contract Value (TACV) is +23% yoy to £16.4m, with ARR +14% yoy to £12.6m due to £3.1m of contracts in deployment. We expect ARR will increase +35% and +31% to £17.0m and £22.2m in FY24 and FY25, as management lands and expands following

AVI Global

AGT’s increasing focus on idiosyncratic opportunities may offer a good source of diversification…

Bankers Investment Trust (The) - Well positioned for the current environment

The Bankers Investment Trust (BNKR) has been managed by Alex Crooke, co-head of equities at Janus Henderson Investors (JHI), since July 2003. It can be considered as a ‘one-stop shop’ for global equity exposure as the fund is made up of six geographic portfolios (sleeves), which harness the talent of JHI’s regional specialists. Crooke (in conjunction with the board) sets BNKR’s asset allocation and manages its gearing. He believes that inflation will remain elevated, and that future shareholder

Regional REIT - Performing as expected ahead of refinancing

In a challenging market, Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) FY23 operational and financial performance was robust, in line with expectations and previous guidance. Investor focus remains on the company’s loan to value (LTV) reduction and bond refinancing plans, explored in detail in our previous note and RGL will provide an update on this in due course.

Henderson Far East Income - Repositioning to raise total returns

Henderson Far East Income (HFEL) has consistently delivered on its objective to provide a rising dividend. However, like many investors, HFEL’s managers overestimated the potential for a post-pandemic rebound in China. The trust’s resultant overweight to Chinese consumer and other cyclicals led to a fall in portfolio revenues and underperformance in the financial year ended 31 August 2023 (FY23). With a view to improving future returns, HFEL’s board has since indicated an increased willingness t

H&T Group (HAT): Core franchise build, short-term retail noise

In our 15 March 2023 initiation, 'Pawnbroking royalty, with strong, profitable growth', and subsequent notes, we have highlighted the strong market for pawnbroking and why H&T, as the market leader, is uniquely placed to take advantage of these opportunities. These results reconfirmed both, with the pledge book up 28% and net pawnbroking revenue up 36%. Like many in the retail space, H&T faced the challenge of customers focusing on lower-value, lower-margin items in the key run-up to Christmas 2

Initiation of Coverage: Duke Capital (DUKE): Meeting customer needs, giving investors returns

DUKE’s unique product provides SMEs across diversified sectors with hybrid capital, allowing the existing team to retain control. By optimising the best of equity and debt, DUKE aims to achieve equity-type returns with debt levels of risk. The loan and participating preference share elements support DUKE shareholders’ high (2024E: 9.0%), growing (2026E: 7% above 2024), and covered dividend. Early exit fees and equity stakes should generate ongoing capital growth as the portfolio matures. PE-styl

BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust - Flying the flag for developing economies

BlackRock Frontiers posted another year of strong returns in FY23 (ended 30 September) and has continued to outperform into 2024, with NAV and share price total returns over one, three, five and 10 years to end-January 2024 comfortably beating the average of its peers in the AIC Global Emerging Markets sector. The trust offers a highly differentiated proposition, avoiding the eight largest emerging markets, which between them tend to account for around 90% of GEM investment. Instead, co-ma

PROGRESSIVE: Tern: Core portfolio thriving

Tern hosted an investor presentation and Q&A session on 26 March. Each of the four presentations from the portfolio companies highlighted increased commercial traction, with configuration work turning to repeat licencing through the SaaS models, a growing high-profile customer base and important strategic partnerships. The presentations reinforced the chairman’s statement that Tern has created, and continues to support, a portfolio of businesses where 80% are not just surviving but thriving, com

Morning Note – 3 May 2024