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  • 30 May 2023

Revisiting the key debates


Intermediate Capital Group plc (ICG:LON) | 0 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 5,742m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Mason Luke LM | Giblat Arnaud GA

    • 21 pages


 

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Revisiting the key debates


Intermediate Capital Group plc (ICG:LON) | 0 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 5,742m


  • Published: 30 May 2023
  • Author: Mason Luke LM | Giblat Arnaud GA
  • Pages: 21
  • BNP Paribas Exane


In this note, we revisit the key debates on ICG following FY23 results. ICG reported a +5% FMC PBT beat vs. csus. driven by lower costs and better than expected investment company returns in H2. We continue to see a more attractive risk/reward for the shares but remain neutral for now. Deployment and fundraising resilient in a challenging market backdrop Debate with investors has focussed on whether private debt focussed ICG can benefit as banks tighten/retrench from lending to private equity backed deals. Thus, the $10.5bn deployed in FY23 predominantly across senior / structured debt was a good outcome and could accelerate if deal markets reopen. This is a supportive indicator for future fundraising where challenges remain, but a pipeline of successor funds should see ICG hit fundraising expectations in the year ahead. Profit margins can rise over time but less operating leverage near term We do give ICG some credit for strong cost control with FMC opex growing just +1% y/y. But we continue to highlight that this currently exclude costs attributable to the launching of new strategies (that are yet to have a 1st close). These grew to GBP24.4m in FY23, +58% y/y. This will shift to the FMC over time and ICG also outlined accelerating hiring into FY24, limiting operating leverage near term. Earnings estimates: small increases to FMC PBT on lower costs We increase FMC PBT marginally (+0-2%) to reflect the lower costs, partly offset by lower performance fees near term as the exit environment remains challenging. Investment case: better risk / reward after a de-rating We continue to see a more attractive risk/reward for the shares, now offering a 6% dividend yield and management fee earnings trading at c.12-13x CY24e on our framework (vs. peers at c.12-19x in Europe). A bull case is for a re-rating in the valuation multiple to be driven by i) stabilising markets, ii) strong deployment as private debt takes market share from the banks, iii)...

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