Maintenance of MaxCyte’s 20+% revenue growth should be underpinned by roll out and uptake of its new ExPERT product suite and boosted by expansion in the number of technology licences. Revenues derived from instruments and consumables, and licence fees provide effectively annuity streams; licences also have significant potential for generating somewhat lumpier future milestones. At H119 results, MaxCyte disclosed it has secured five commercial licences to date, which collectively represent over $450m in potential pre-commercial milestones, with undisclosed potential sales economics.

Increasing demand for MaxCyte’s enabling technology for cell and gene therapies should drive its sales growth, especially with the shift to non-viral approaches as the limitations of viral transduction are more widely appreciated. MaxCyte offers one of the few alternative methods to modify cells efficiently and reproducibly for such therapies.

Lead CARMA asset MCY-M11 is dosing the second cohort in a Phase I ovarian cancer and mesothelioma study. Two key milestones have been achieved: successful validation of the one-day manufacturing process (vs 1-2 weeks for current CAR-T therapies), and no safety concerns seen in patients treated to date. MaxCyte is exploring independent funding sources for the CARMA platform; preliminary clinical data from Q419 will support these efforts. 

We continue to value MaxCyte at £195m or 341p per share, although we have updated our estimates following the H119 results. Our valuation of the core business excluding CARMA is £111m, which is 56% more than the current market cap.