24 Oct 2025
Oxford Biomedica : Forecast update - Buy
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Oxford Biomedica : Forecast update - Buy
Oxford BioMedica plc (OXB:LON) | 619 167.1 4.6% | Mkt Cap: 745.9m
- Published:
24 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Dr Jens Lindqvist -
Pages:
7 -
Forecast update. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the £60m (gross) Placing, the subsequent interim results and the new medium-to-long term guidance.
Minor changes to FY’25e: As shown overleaf, we leave FY’25e revenue and adjusted EBITDA materially unchanged, at £162m and £1.7m, respectively, in line with unchanged guidance for £160-170m of revenue and operating/adjusted EBITDA in the low-single digits, with upgrades to gross and net cash.
Factoring in an advancing pipeline: We upgrade FY’26e revenue by 1.5% to £223.5m (vs. guidance of £220-240m) and FY’27e revenue by 11.5%, as an expected consequence of customer products progressing to commercial-scale production, to £281.4m (+25.9% YoY vs. guidance for +25-30% in CER).
Adjusting the shape of expected margin improvement. We factor in additional costs over FY’26e-27e, offset by operating leverage from FY’27e, resulting in adjusted EBITDA margins for FY’26e -110bps to 10.6% (vs. guidance for >10%) and FY’27e +90bps to 20.4% (vs. guidance for at least 20%). We continue to expect further margin progression into the longer term.
Valuation upgrade. Our DCF-based valuation (9% discount rate, 1.5% TGR) implies an updated target price of 772p. We note that OXB trades at a 19% discount to global CDMO peers on CY’26 EV/Sales. We reiterate Buy.