Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Vernalis. We currently have 78 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
We report on the performance of our momentum style screen since the last refresh three months ago and present the 25 new constituents. The screen underperformed small-cap and microcap indices modestly, though our previous focus stocks did significantly better. While momentum (as we express it) has outperformed smallcap significantly since inception of the screen in July 2016, this has arisen in shorter periods and appears to only coincide with a steadily rising small-cap index. We therefore consider this style screen to have limited predictive capability. We highlight seven stocks, which we think are interesting.
Companies: BMY EKT KEYS LGT MACF VER WYG
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Vernalis (VER). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
PROACTIS Holdings (PHD LN) New brand identity | Vernalis (VER LN) Tris Pharma liability clarified, sale talks underway (Hold to Not Rated) |
Companies: Proactis Vernalis
Cake Box Holdings—franchise retailer of cakes with a growing store base across the UK looking to join AIM, Offer tbc, expected late June Mind Gym. Behavioural science business that uses scalable proprietary products to deliver human capital and business improvement solutions to large corporations. Offer TBA. Due 28 June Anexo -specialist integrated credit hire and legal services group. Offer TBA. Due 19 June. i-nexus—develops and provides strategy execution software to assist global enterprises in effective execution of their strategic plans and initiatives looking to jon AIM. Offer TBC, expected 19 June Yellow Cake will use its expertise to generate value through the ownership of physical U3O8 (Uranium) together with a range of activities and opportunities connected with owning physical U3O8. Acquiring supply contract for up to $170m. Offer TBA. Tekmar— technology provider of protection systems for subsea cable, umbilical and flexible pipes and offshore engineering services—Offshore wind farms and Oil & Gas. Revenue of £21.9m and Adjusted EBITDA of £4.9m Offer TBA Knights Group— UK regional legal and professional services businesses. FYApr18 rev £34.9 million and adjusted operating profit was £6.8 million excluding Turner Parkinson (acquiring on IPO). Offer TBA TransGlobe Energy Corporation—an independent international upstream oil and gas company with headquarters in Calgary, Canada is looking to join AIM. No Capital to be raised, market cap of £131m. Expected 29 June Strongbow Exploration (TSX:SBW) intends to dual list on AIM. Holds rights to the South Crofty underground tin mine, a former producing tin mine located in the towns of Pool and Camborne, Cornwall . The project is estimated to require the Company to raise £25 million over the next 18 months to progress to a production decision. Offer TBS. Due June.
Companies: MTFB STX VER ITM NWF KZG IMM VERS ECSC BOOM
Avingtrans (AVG LN) Good progress on integration; FY19 PBT raised 13% | Devro (DVO LN) Upgrading to Buy on valuation and recovery grounds | Genus (GNS LN) H1’s in line with expectations: solid ABS performance | Vernalis (VER LN) Tuzistra® XR scrips below guidance: evaluating strategic options
Companies: AVG DVO GNS VER
Vernalis has provided a trading and operational update to its guidance for Tuzistra XR prescriptions for financial year-end 2018. Despite dynamic management of commercial initiatives, Tuzistra XR prescription growth is not accelerating fast enough to meet Vernalis’s guidance of 105-115k prescriptions (given at the FY17 results). Following a disappointing uptake in the current cough cold season (~65% of the season is complete), Vernalis is downgrading guidance on prescription numbers and, in light of slow progress in the US cough and flu business, is seeking alternative strategies for the US business and the group. As such, we place our financial forecasts and valuation under review until we receive clarity on strategic next steps and the potential impact on cash burn, given a cash balance of £44m (unaudited at 31 January 2018).
A look at what brokers are covering today, Thursday December 14.
Advanced Medical Solutions (AMS LN) In line FY trading update | Infrastructure India (IIP LN) NAV declines further - financing discussions continue | IQE (IQE LN) Apple investment in VCSELs highlights upgrade potential | ReNeuron Group (RENE LN) Interim results and IND approved to commence Phase IIb in stroke | Severfield (SFR LN) Significant Google contract confirmed | Synairgen (SNG LN) Revised terms with Pharmaxis | Tribal Group (TRB LN) Financial performance materially ahead | Vernalis (VER LN) Trading update highlights Tuzistra® XR run-rate below expectations
Companies: AMS IQE VER SNG IIP TRB SFR RENE
The shortfall in prescription volume growth volume is disappointing, although we note our cautious stance vs. guidance for current-year prescriptions. We significantly lowered our rollout expectations for Tuzistra® XR and the four follow-on cough cold programmes on 24th November and will review our estimates following this morning’s update. The company enjoys a strong cash position of £48.9m (as per 11th Dec).
Fusion Antibodies— Sch1 from the Belfast based contract research organisation providing services to biopharmaceutical and diagnostics companies that are involved in the development of antibodies for both therapeutic drug and diagnostic applications. Offer to raise £5.5m for the Company and £1.075m for selling shareholders at 82p with market cap of £18.1m. Due 18 Dec | Erris Resources PLC—a mineral exploration and development company currently focused on two geographic areas. Offer TBC, expected 21 December 2017 | CIP Merchant Capital—Closed ended investment Company. Sector focus oil & gas, healthcare, pharma, and real estate. Offer TBA. Due 21 Dec | Panthera Resources— The Company was established to act as a holding company for Indo Gold Limited, an unlisted Australian registered company. The Company aims to explore and develop gold assets in India and West Africa. Offer TBC, expected 20 Dec | Sumo Group—one of the UK's largest independent developers of AAA-rated video games providing both turnkey and codevelopment solutions, including initial concept and pre-production. Offer TBC. Due late Dec | Pelatro—provider of proprietary software solutions to enterprise-level customers for various aspects of precision marketing for use in B2C applications. Offer TBC, expected 19 December 2017 | Fusion Antibodies—contract research organisation providing services to biopharmaceutical and diagnostics companies that are involved in the development of antibodies for both therapeutic drug and diagnostic applications. Raising £5.5m at 82p plus £1.075mn vendor sale. £mkt cap £18.1m Due 18 Dec. | Sirius Petroleum—RTO. Becoming an operating company in the Ororo Field in Nigeria. Raising £7.2m/ Mkt Cap £35.6m. Due 19 Dec. | Bushveld Minerals—RTO of Bushveld Vametco and therefore 78.8% of Strategic Minerals Corporation, the intermediate holding company that owns a 75 per cent. interest in the Vametco Vanadium Mine. | Eqtec—Company with access to a proprietary advanced gasification technology used in industrial size power plants to convert waste into synthetic gas to generate electricity. Raising £1.6m. Mkt Cap £8.7m. Due 21 Dec | Volex VLX.L—The global provider of cable assemblies is proposing to move from the main market to AIM on 19 January. £71m market cap. FYMar18E rev £241.5m and £7.19m PBT | Miriad Advertising—Global video advertising company incorporated in 2015 and is engaged in the development of native invideo advertising. 2016 rev £0.7m and £7.3m operating loss. Offer TBA. Expected 19 Dec | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
Companies: BIRD VER OTC MPH IQG PDZ MSYS REAT BCN
Future (FUTR LN) Results underline change and opportunity | IndigoVision Group (IND LN) Trading behind expectations; Chief Exec leaves | James Fisher & Sons (FSJ LN) Outlook unchanged; Offshore Oil recovery delayed | Sanderson Group (SND LN) Scaling up the Enterprise division | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) Earnings enhancing acquisitions | Vernalis (VER LN) Reduction in cough cold forecasts | WYG (WYG LN) UK challenges prompt further downgrades
Companies: SDY VER FSJ IND WYG SND FUTR
Tuzistra XR prescriptions (Rx) grew threefold to ~35k in FY16/17 (2nd year on the market) vs ~12k in FY15/16. Investment into addressing the barriers to higher Tuzistra XR prescribing is translating into higher Rx rates, although this has not been matched by revenue growth due to higher inventory stocking in the same period last year. In H217 FDA issued partner Tris with two complete response letters to Vernalis’s CCP-07 and CCP-08 NDAs and we now model launch during the 2018/19 cough cold season. Our updated forecasts reflect this and lower Tuzistra XR revenues due to a slower than anticipated sales trajectory in the near term.
See what's trending this week...
Futura Medical (FUM LN) H1 results: Eroxon® trial plan amended; licensing discussions underway | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) Further downgrades overshadow various strategic positives | Murgitroyd Group (MUR LN) Trading in line after record H2 performance | Oxford Instruments (OXIG LN) FY18 guidance maintained, but dependent on stronger H2 | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) BARDA contract a major boost to ridinilazole | Vernalis (VER LN) Solid FY results driven by NCE collaborations; Tuzistra broadly in line
Companies: SUMM VER OXIG GOAL MUR FUM
FY results are ahead of our forecasts, mainly as a result of higher than expected NCE collaborative revenue, with Tuzistra™ XR prescriptions broadly in line. Following Complete Response Letters from the FDA for follow-on cough cold programmes CCP-07 and (post period-end) CCP-08, the share trades near all-time lows. Vernalis is currently working closely with Tris Pharma to resubmit the NDAs as soon as possible. We reiterate Hold.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Vernalis. We currently have 78 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
|10Oct18 10:18||RNS||Statement re Vernalis Scheme Effective|
|10Oct18 07:30||RNS||Suspension - Vernalis plc|
|09Oct18 12:03||RNS||Statement re Court Sanction of Scheme|
|09Oct18 07:00||RNS||Statement re Update to Court Sanction Date|
|02Oct18 15:06||RNS||Results of Meetings|
|01Oct18 14:57||RNS||Block listing Interim Review|
We initiate coverage on life sciences company OptiBiotix Health plc (“OPTI”) with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price ("TP") of GBp97 per share. OPTI discovers and develops targeted microbiome-modulating probiotics, prebiotics and other functional food ingredients backed by scientific and clinical evidence. Since its founding in 2014, the company has developed four products for cardiovascular lifestyle diseases and entered >45 commercial deals with corporate partners through which it generates revenues throughout the value chain. The first two ingredients, LPLDL for cholesterol reduction and SlimBiome for weight loss were launched in May 2017 and are already generating revenues. We expect total revenues including those of latestage assets SweetBiotix (calorie-free sweet fibres for sugar replacement) and LPGOS (prebiotic that enhances the effect of LPLDL) to exceed £50m by 2025E.
Companies: Optibiotix Health
Futura has announced the establishment of a joint venture (JV) with CBDerma Technology, a company that has been created and funded to exploit the therapeutic potential of Cannabis. The JV is exploring the potential of using Futura's proprietary transdermal drug delivery technology DermaSys® for the delivery of Cannabidoil (CBD).
Companies: Futura Medical
A strong margin performance in H1 and positive outlook statement leads us to upgrade PBT/EPS expectations by 6%, continuing the recent track record of outperformance. Cash generation remains strong and a maiden dividend of 1.0p is expected, equating to a useful 3.2% yield. Following the success of the Renalytix AI spin out and IPO, EKF has deepened its relationship with Mount Sinai, signing a Preferred Provider Agreement to give it early access to new commercial opportunities. The first of these is a novel digital care pathway platform for patients with IBD, a significant chronic disease burden. We believe this represents an exciting potential opportunity for further value creation in due course, adding to the already strong organic growth opportunity from EKF itself. Now trading on sub-10x FY20 EV/EBITDA, EKF is looking increasingly undervalued given the multiple opportunities ahead.
Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holding
Futura announced HY2019 results today. It continues to deliver to plan with the key P3 FM57 study on-track to read-out in December and over 500 patients (of 1,000 in total) having completed the study already.
Companies: Futura Medical
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.
Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
LupuzorTM owned and developed by ImmuPharma is a valuable late-stage asset and is potentially a key peptide therapeutic drug in the fight against Lupus. Last year, the drug completed the first of two-Phase III clinical trials; we commented on the data and analysis of the trial result, in extensive detail in our initiation report dated: 28 May 2019. The second LupuzorTM Phase III clinical trial, could begin after the agreement of the trial design with regulators (possibly based on a targeted group encompassing Lupus patients that are anti-dsDNA auto-antibody positive) and once a licensing partner or funding route is identified. In this note, we comment on and evaluate the results of AstraZeneca’s recently disclosed Phase III Lupus trial, (Tulip II), which we believe will potentially have a positive impact on the Lupus field and the prospects for partnering LupuzorTM, as well as its path report. We reiterate our BUY rating on ImmuPharma plc and a Target Price of 76p.
Creo Medical has announced the initiation of phase II of its clinical education programme for its lead product, Speedboat, in the US. This is a significant step, seeing a recently trained US gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopist training three further US clinicians. While Creo itself can train a number of physicians per year, having its trained practitioners running training programmes themselves will create a cascade effect, multiplying the number of trained Speedboat users, and therefore customers, working in the US. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Companies: Creo Medical Group
Like whales feasting on Krill, overseas firms are today stuffing themselves silly with choice fillets of corporate Britain. Why? Well look no further than geopolitical tensions and Brexit, which have disproportionately impacted UK equities and the £. Indeed the FTSE100 has lagged the S&P500 by a hefty 19% over the past 2 years, with Sterling dropping to 34 year lows vs US$ (see below). That said to us, based purely on fundamentals, this period of underperformance appears over-cooked, leaving many quality British companies vulnerable to predatory interest.
Companies: VOD AV/ AGK CHG CNA ITV BRBY SMIN CTEC SXS OXIG MGAM IMI WEIR WMH KMK EYE GATC ULS INS ALFA RDT TSTL ELCO MBH BLTG IHC 9537 CSRT NBI
Genus has received a disappointing judgement in its latest litigation in the US against Sexing Technologies (ST). The courts have ruled that ST's patent '987 is valid and hence Genus will have to continue paying a $1.25/straw royalty.
The second exclusive vaccine technology licensing deal with The Pirbright Institute (a leading UK-based veterinary research body), announced this morning, targets the prevention of four poultry diseases of significant economic importance, and adds to ECO’s already exciting portfolio of development-stage vaccines. We look forward to further development updates with interest, and reiterate our positive stance.
Companies: Eco Animal Health Group
Full-year results to 30 April 2019 were in line at the revenue line but 5% (£0.1m) better than expected at the adjusted pre-tax profit level. Underpinned by c.5.5% organic growth, the 20% and 26% increases in revenue and adjusted EBITDA were driven by full-year contributions from ATC and QSI, acquired in FY 2018, as well as five acquisitions in FY 2019. Notable was the 35% increase in free cashflow. Additional investments into Sentek, Atik, Graticules and Astles and the integration of ATC with Thermal Exchange in FY 2020 should benefit the businesses in FY 2021. We upgrade our FY 2020 adjusted EPS by 7% as well as introduce FY 2021 forecasts, which indicate 13% EPS growth. The company indicates that it expects to add at least one new business in FY 2020, which will be incremental to these forecasts. We are raising our target price by 9% to 60p, reflecting the improved gross margins and stronger underlying cashflow.
Companies: Scientific Digital Imaging
The challenges associated with value creation drive all investors. Any investment professional is eager to make their mark by picking organisations that are able to deliver superior returns. Increasingly investors look into how organisations are governed and how effective the top decision-making bodies of organisations really are. In this white paper, we shed light on research findings and reveal the seven hallmarks of effective boards. The seven hallmarks are proven to create more effective boards and are set to be the next lever in the value creation process. Better Boards has created advanced board evaluation tools designed to motivate and inspire and above all, contribute to superior value creation.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VTA W7L
Top-line data from the pivotal China Phase III FALUCA fruquintinib monotherapy trial in 3L NSCLC (third-line non-small cell lung cancer), released November 2018, indicated the study missed its overall survival (OS) endpoint but met all secondary endpoints. Full data presented at the 2019 World Congress on Lung Cancer revealed median OS of 8.94 months for fruquintinib vs 10.38 months for placebo (p=0.0841). A post hoc sensitivity analysis suggested use of subsequent anti-tumour therapies following disease progression was likely to have contributed to this result. FALUCA data coupled to the rapidly evolving treatment landscape in NSCLC supports ChiMed’s decision to focus on development of fruquintinib in combination with PD-(L)1 checkpoint inhibitors; China Phase I combination studies have begun. However, the major near-term catalyst for fruquintinib remains commercial: potential NRDL inclusion in Q419 would provide strong impetus to China revenues.
Companies: Hutchison China Meditech
Medica is the UK market leader in teleradiology, providing outsourced image analysis and reporting services to the NHS and private sector. It is benefitting from structural growth in demand for complex medical images and an NHS struggling to manage workflows efficiently. We view the current share price weakness as being temporary and offering a strong buying opportunity. The valuation is very attractive given the strong mid-teens organic growth outlook. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and 186p TP, offering a TSR of 30%.
Companies: Medica Group