Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Vernalis. We currently have 78 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
We report on the performance of our momentum style screen since the last refresh three months ago and present the 25 new constituents. The screen underperformed small-cap and microcap indices modestly, though our previous focus stocks did significantly better. While momentum (as we express it) has outperformed smallcap significantly since inception of the screen in July 2016, this has arisen in shorter periods and appears to only coincide with a steadily rising small-cap index. We therefore consider this style screen to have limited predictive capability. We highlight seven stocks, which we think are interesting.
Companies: BMY EKT KEYS LGT MACF VER WYG
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Vernalis (VER). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
PROACTIS Holdings (PHD LN) New brand identity | Vernalis (VER LN) Tris Pharma liability clarified, sale talks underway (Hold to Not Rated) |
Companies: Proactis Vernalis
Cake Box Holdings—franchise retailer of cakes with a growing store base across the UK looking to join AIM, Offer tbc, expected late June Mind Gym. Behavioural science business that uses scalable proprietary products to deliver human capital and business improvement solutions to large corporations. Offer TBA. Due 28 June Anexo -specialist integrated credit hire and legal services group. Offer TBA. Due 19 June. i-nexus—develops and provides strategy execution software to assist global enterprises in effective execution of their strategic plans and initiatives looking to jon AIM. Offer TBC, expected 19 June Yellow Cake will use its expertise to generate value through the ownership of physical U3O8 (Uranium) together with a range of activities and opportunities connected with owning physical U3O8. Acquiring supply contract for up to $170m. Offer TBA. Tekmar— technology provider of protection systems for subsea cable, umbilical and flexible pipes and offshore engineering services—Offshore wind farms and Oil & Gas. Revenue of £21.9m and Adjusted EBITDA of £4.9m Offer TBA Knights Group— UK regional legal and professional services businesses. FYApr18 rev £34.9 million and adjusted operating profit was £6.8 million excluding Turner Parkinson (acquiring on IPO). Offer TBA TransGlobe Energy Corporation—an independent international upstream oil and gas company with headquarters in Calgary, Canada is looking to join AIM. No Capital to be raised, market cap of £131m. Expected 29 June Strongbow Exploration (TSX:SBW) intends to dual list on AIM. Holds rights to the South Crofty underground tin mine, a former producing tin mine located in the towns of Pool and Camborne, Cornwall . The project is estimated to require the Company to raise £25 million over the next 18 months to progress to a production decision. Offer TBS. Due June.
Companies: BOOM MTFB STX VER ITM NWF KZG IMM VERS ECSC
Avingtrans (AVG LN) Good progress on integration; FY19 PBT raised 13% | Devro (DVO LN) Upgrading to Buy on valuation and recovery grounds | Genus (GNS LN) H1’s in line with expectations: solid ABS performance | Vernalis (VER LN) Tuzistra® XR scrips below guidance: evaluating strategic options
Companies: AVG DVO GNS VER
Vernalis has provided a trading and operational update to its guidance for Tuzistra XR prescriptions for financial year-end 2018. Despite dynamic management of commercial initiatives, Tuzistra XR prescription growth is not accelerating fast enough to meet Vernalis’s guidance of 105-115k prescriptions (given at the FY17 results). Following a disappointing uptake in the current cough cold season (~65% of the season is complete), Vernalis is downgrading guidance on prescription numbers and, in light of slow progress in the US cough and flu business, is seeking alternative strategies for the US business and the group. As such, we place our financial forecasts and valuation under review until we receive clarity on strategic next steps and the potential impact on cash burn, given a cash balance of £44m (unaudited at 31 January 2018).
A look at what brokers are covering today, Thursday December 14.
Advanced Medical Solutions (AMS LN) In line FY trading update | Infrastructure India (IIP LN) NAV declines further - financing discussions continue | IQE (IQE LN) Apple investment in VCSELs highlights upgrade potential | ReNeuron Group (RENE LN) Interim results and IND approved to commence Phase IIb in stroke | Severfield (SFR LN) Significant Google contract confirmed | Synairgen (SNG LN) Revised terms with Pharmaxis | Tribal Group (TRB LN) Financial performance materially ahead | Vernalis (VER LN) Trading update highlights Tuzistra® XR run-rate below expectations
Companies: AMS IQE VER SNG IIP TRB SFR RENE
The shortfall in prescription volume growth volume is disappointing, although we note our cautious stance vs. guidance for current-year prescriptions. We significantly lowered our rollout expectations for Tuzistra® XR and the four follow-on cough cold programmes on 24th November and will review our estimates following this morning’s update. The company enjoys a strong cash position of £48.9m (as per 11th Dec).
Fusion Antibodies— Sch1 from the Belfast based contract research organisation providing services to biopharmaceutical and diagnostics companies that are involved in the development of antibodies for both therapeutic drug and diagnostic applications. Offer to raise £5.5m for the Company and £1.075m for selling shareholders at 82p with market cap of £18.1m. Due 18 Dec | Erris Resources PLC—a mineral exploration and development company currently focused on two geographic areas. Offer TBC, expected 21 December 2017 | CIP Merchant Capital—Closed ended investment Company. Sector focus oil & gas, healthcare, pharma, and real estate. Offer TBA. Due 21 Dec | Panthera Resources— The Company was established to act as a holding company for Indo Gold Limited, an unlisted Australian registered company. The Company aims to explore and develop gold assets in India and West Africa. Offer TBC, expected 20 Dec | Sumo Group—one of the UK's largest independent developers of AAA-rated video games providing both turnkey and codevelopment solutions, including initial concept and pre-production. Offer TBC. Due late Dec | Pelatro—provider of proprietary software solutions to enterprise-level customers for various aspects of precision marketing for use in B2C applications. Offer TBC, expected 19 December 2017 | Fusion Antibodies—contract research organisation providing services to biopharmaceutical and diagnostics companies that are involved in the development of antibodies for both therapeutic drug and diagnostic applications. Raising £5.5m at 82p plus £1.075mn vendor sale. £mkt cap £18.1m Due 18 Dec. | Sirius Petroleum—RTO. Becoming an operating company in the Ororo Field in Nigeria. Raising £7.2m/ Mkt Cap £35.6m. Due 19 Dec. | Bushveld Minerals—RTO of Bushveld Vametco and therefore 78.8% of Strategic Minerals Corporation, the intermediate holding company that owns a 75 per cent. interest in the Vametco Vanadium Mine. | Eqtec—Company with access to a proprietary advanced gasification technology used in industrial size power plants to convert waste into synthetic gas to generate electricity. Raising £1.6m. Mkt Cap £8.7m. Due 21 Dec | Volex VLX.L—The global provider of cable assemblies is proposing to move from the main market to AIM on 19 January. £71m market cap. FYMar18E rev £241.5m and £7.19m PBT | Miriad Advertising—Global video advertising company incorporated in 2015 and is engaged in the development of native invideo advertising. 2016 rev £0.7m and £7.3m operating loss. Offer TBA. Expected 19 Dec | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
Companies: FBT VER OTC MPH IQG PDZ MSYS REAT BCN
Future (FUTR LN) Results underline change and opportunity | IndigoVision Group (IND LN) Trading behind expectations; Chief Exec leaves | James Fisher & Sons (FSJ LN) Outlook unchanged; Offshore Oil recovery delayed | Sanderson Group (SND LN) Scaling up the Enterprise division | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) Earnings enhancing acquisitions | Vernalis (VER LN) Reduction in cough cold forecasts | WYG (WYG LN) UK challenges prompt further downgrades
Companies: SDY VER FSJ IND WYG SND FUTR
Tuzistra XR prescriptions (Rx) grew threefold to ~35k in FY16/17 (2nd year on the market) vs ~12k in FY15/16. Investment into addressing the barriers to higher Tuzistra XR prescribing is translating into higher Rx rates, although this has not been matched by revenue growth due to higher inventory stocking in the same period last year. In H217 FDA issued partner Tris with two complete response letters to Vernalis’s CCP-07 and CCP-08 NDAs and we now model launch during the 2018/19 cough cold season. Our updated forecasts reflect this and lower Tuzistra XR revenues due to a slower than anticipated sales trajectory in the near term.
See what's trending this week...
Futura Medical (FUM LN) H1 results: Eroxon® trial plan amended; licensing discussions underway | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) Further downgrades overshadow various strategic positives | Murgitroyd Group (MUR LN) Trading in line after record H2 performance | Oxford Instruments (OXIG LN) FY18 guidance maintained, but dependent on stronger H2 | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) BARDA contract a major boost to ridinilazole | Vernalis (VER LN) Solid FY results driven by NCE collaborations; Tuzistra broadly in line
Companies: SUMM VER OXIG GOAL MUR FUM
FY results are ahead of our forecasts, mainly as a result of higher than expected NCE collaborative revenue, with Tuzistra™ XR prescriptions broadly in line. Following Complete Response Letters from the FDA for follow-on cough cold programmes CCP-07 and (post period-end) CCP-08, the share trades near all-time lows. Vernalis is currently working closely with Tris Pharma to resubmit the NDAs as soon as possible. We reiterate Hold.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Vernalis. We currently have 78 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
|10Oct18 10:18||RNS||Statement re Vernalis Scheme Effective|
|10Oct18 07:30||RNS||Suspension - Vernalis plc|
|09Oct18 12:03||RNS||Statement re Court Sanction of Scheme|
|09Oct18 07:00||RNS||Statement re Update to Court Sanction Date|
|02Oct18 15:06||RNS||Results of Meetings|
|01Oct18 14:57||RNS||Block listing Interim Review|
The multi-billion dollar market for erectile dysfunction (ED) therapies continues to be dominated by PDE-5 inhibitors, despite a slow onset of action and negative side-effects. We believe Futura’s MED2005 addresses these issues and expect positive P3 data in December.
Companies: Futura Medical
Futura has announced that its P3 trial of MED2005 for the treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED) is now fully enrolled, on budget and on-track to read-out by the end of the year. This is an important milestone as the study is the key catalyst for the shares.
Companies: Futura Medical
Companies: AZN AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR PCA PHP RE/ REDX STX SIXH TON SHED VAL VTA W7L
The IPO proceeds to date have been invested in initiatives to broaden the data lake and increase processing efficiencies. We expect this to enhance financial returns and accelerate business performance. With the benefits accruing next year onwards, the current share price does not discount this improving outlook in our opinion.
We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.
Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Avacta is developing its Affimer technology for use in therapeutic and diagnostic/reagent applications. The potential of the Affimer technology lies in its formatting capabilities, particularly in the creation of bispecific and TMAC Affimer drug conjugates. Its lead therapeutic asset (AVA004) is a programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1)-targeting Affimer for which the company expects to submit an investigational new drug (IND) application in Q420. AVA004 will serve as the first clinical validation of the Affimer technology and will form the base of the clinical development of a PD-L1/LAG-3 bispecific (AVA021) and the first TMAC Affimer drug conjugate (AVA004/100). We value Avacta at £51m or 44p/share.
Companies: Avacta Group
Scancell has announced that it has raised £3.877m (gross) through the issue of 77.6m new shares to Vulpes Life Sciences Fund at a price of 5p per share. The new investment results in Vulpes holding 16.67% of the enlarged share capital, overtaking Calculus Capital as the largest shareholder.
ECO Animal Health has delivered another set of remarkably solid FY results, in line with expectations in spite of challenging market conditions in the US and the nationwide ASF outbreak in China. Aivlosin® maintained its impressive growth trajectory during the period (+14% YoY), demonstrating yet again the strength of the brand and the economic advantage vs. competing products in swine & poultry markets. Overall margins were in line with expectations, with increased external development expenditure to support the Group’s medium-term growth and product launch ambitions. The recommended underlying dividend for the year of 11.04p/share (in addition to which a special 3.5p dividend was paid in January 2019) represents a 20% increase YoY. Today’s results confirm our belief in both the resilience and growth potential of ECO’s global business. We reiterate our positive stance on ECO as a core holding in the Animal Health sector, with the currently depressed share price providing an attractive opportunity for investment.
Companies: Eco Animal Health Group
Surgical Innovations has announced that CFO Melanie Ross is to leave the business at the end of the month to pursue other opportunities. Charmaine Day (Group FC and Co Sec) will assume financial responsibilities for the group, reporting directly to CEO David Marsh. In addition, the group has announced the recruitment of an experienced Head of Compliance, further strengthening its regulatory function. Steve Seed will re-join the group in September from Xiros, where he holds a similar position.
Companies: Surgical Innovations Group
Evgen reported full-year results to 31 March that were c.£0.3m better than expected, resulting in year-end cash of £2.0m. Together with a £5m placing in May, the company is funded through to mid-2021 at its current run rate. Whilst we await the Phase IIb trial read-out for SFX-01 in sub-arachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) in late Q3/early Q4, the company continues to plan for a placebo-controlled Phase IIb trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC), which, funding-permitting, could start in H2 2019. We reiterate our price target of 35p, 65% of which is underpinned by the mBC indication. A positive outcome for SAH would add c.50p to our target valuation, whilst the downside is protected by the mBC indication and the prospect of announcing an agreement to support investigator-led and funded trials for SFX-01 or analogues in other indications, for which Evgen retains all future commercial rights; this is not included in our target valuation.
Companies: Evgen Pharma
Oxford BioMedica (OXB) is a specialist, advanced therapy, viral-vector biopharma company. It offers vector manufacturing and development services, while developing proprietary drug candidates, with its LentiVector® platform. 2018 saw significant growth in gross income, primarily through licensing deals, to deliver OXB’s first underlying operating profit. OXB is, however, carrying a significant loan of $55m, which is relatively expensive with an interest rate of 9% plus US LIBOR, and also exposes it to forex risk. Equity financing of £53.5m from Novo Holdings A/S has been agreed, allowing repayment of the loan and securing a strategic partner.
Companies: Oxford Biomedica
Hutchison China MediTech (Chi-Med) is one step closer to the commercialisation of its first wholly owned drug, surufatinib, in China. Early termination of the Phase III SANET-ep study in extra-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (epNET) - as it had already met its primary endpoint of progression-free survival (PFS) at the planned interim analysis - brings forward the timing of potential first surufatinib approval by c 12 months. While full SANET-ep data will not be available until presentation at a future scientific conference, this result enables Chi-Med to seek a pre-NDA meeting with the China NMPA to discuss next steps in the regulatory process. Reviewing our surufatinib assumptions, we now assume a 2020 approval/launch in non-pancreatic NET. Our upgraded valuation is $5.14bn ($38.55/ADS) or £3.95bn (£5.93/share).
Companies: Hutchison China Meditech
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH FDL FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI
The market has not faced quite so many conflicting challenges for a number of years, whether related to global geopolitics, trade wars, ongoing Eurozone issues or the “will they, won’t they” saga of Brexit. In our Best Ideas, we sought to highlight stocks that present investors with interesting opportunities following recent market moves. Those stocks, we believe, warrant investor attention, in many cases for uncorrelated or stockspecific reasons, regardless of the near-to-medium term market direction. These stocks, in general, represent attractive and well-managed businesses or assets, with share price catalysts and where valuations or recent stock performance provide investors with a good entry point.
Companies: 7DIG ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM MACF MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PARK PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZTF