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Acquisition completion
The Company has announced the completion of the 70% stake in Astley Baker Davies. This acquisition raises ETO exposure to the Peppa Pig property to 85%. Given ETO’s strategic options the acquisition was arguably the most logical step, however we estimate it has increased the level of exposure to this one property to c28% of group EBITDA. Investors should note we do not explicitly discount the concentration factor in our valuation. Our valuation does discount to a degree the weak group cash generation. We forecast negative free cash flow for each of the three forecast years (FY16 to FY18). This is uncomfortable in the context of leverage. At the earnings level we forecast a 3 year CAGR of just 5.7%. Even this modest growth is open to question given the difference between cash generation and income statement profits we have previously analysed at length. We reiterate our Sell rating.