N+1 Singer - Pinewood Group - Blockbuster FY16 finals
12 Jul 16
Pinewood yesterday delivered forecast busting FY16 finals and there was positive commentary around current trading and PSDF1. There was no further new news around the “Strategic Review” but the strength of the results has effectively made the company more attractive and valuable from a corporate view. We push though 10%-16% 2 year EPS upgrades and lift our 12m TP from 575p to 615p - 15x FY17 EV/EBITDA.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 12-07-2016
12 Jul 16
An in line trading update reassures that Quantum remains on track and we make no changes to our forecasts. The pipeline of products is beginning to deliver and we look forward to further positive news on product launches and commercial success in due course. CEO Andy Scaife, who has led the business for the last seven years and has been the architect of the group’s growth and strategy, has tendered his resignation for family reasons. He will remain with the business until a successor is appointed to ensure a smooth handover. As such, we see no change to the short term outlook. The shares remain extremely good value on a Jan-17 P/E of 10.8x and offer scope for a substantial re-rating as products from the pipeline are delivered.
Strategic review to strengthen the growth ‘force’
10 Feb 16
Pinewood is effectively in play given today’s announcement of a Strategic Review to address the capital base and structure. Given the high structural growth, freehold backing and trophy asset characteristics of the group, we envisage strong 3rd party interest to either take an equity stake or fully acquire the business. There is also further positive trading newsflow this morning, prompting 7-8% EPS upgrades. We estimate a take out value between 550p-600p and lift our 12m TP from 530p to 575p - Buy.
Robust interims - “The Force” is with Pinewood
01 Dec 15
Pinewood has delivered a robust set of interims, reflecting the broad strength of the proposition in a growing end-market and the upside from various strategic initiatives. We push through 5%-6% EPS upgrades today and formally move to a Buy with a target price of 530p. Given a 4 year EPS CAGR of at least 15%, we would strongly encourage investors to take a closer look at Pinewood, and are available for 1:1 meetings to fully outline the key drivers of the investment case.
Putting the M in TMT
10 Nov 15
When certain investor groups focus on ‘tech’ stocks it is easy to forget that Media forms part of the wider TMT sector. Media (mass communication) companies have a wide range of activities. But as the public consumes media through an ever broader choice of devices and channels, media and technology have become inextricably linked. This can be related to how we consume media, with innovative music streaming platforms from the likes of 7digital (7DIG), to how corporates monitor the efficacy of their marketing dollar with Big Data analytics platforms such as that provided by Ebiquity (EBQ).
Reassuring AGM update
28 Sep 15
A brief but reassuring AGM update from Pinewood this morning. Media Service continues to enjoy high occupancy and good visibility beyond the current financial year. Media Investment deal flow, utilising 3rd party funding, is cited as being H2 biased this year. We are not unduly worried with regard to this given the earnings neutrality of this area of activity. We keep forecasts unchanged but see the risk on the upside at the November interims. We estimate fair value at 512p on PropCo/OpCo and EV/EBITDA based analysis. Our upside analysis shows fair value comfortably >600p.
Blockbuster FY15 finals – 17% EPS growth & upgrades
30 Jun 15
Pinewood has delivered an excellent set of FY15 finals resulting in a 5.5% EPS beat and implying 17% y/y growth. Operationally there is good evidence of the business having strong momentum and PSDF1 is progressing positively. FY16 has got off to a strong start with good visibility cited for the year. We push through 3 year EPS upgrades of 11% / 5% / 2%. Overall, the tenor of the finals reinforce the strength of Pinewood’s offering and once new capacity is operational, there exists significant scope to capitalise on rising global demand for high quality screen based content. With EPS / FCF projected to near double in the next 4 years, we are positive.