Breedon has sustained its trajectory of recovery seen since July and August, when it started to outpace 2019 comparative levels of revenue and EBIT, through September and October to the extent that it is now able to issue modestly improved guidance for FY20. The stock has been a stellar performer rising c15% over the past month, is flat on the quarter but 36% higher over the past 12-months and we believe that the rating is not expensive (2022E EV/EBITDA c8x, PE 15.8x, dividend payments initiated and leverage closing in on 1x). Breedon has become one of the sector's most admired businesses, with a consistent record of delivery (proven again through COVID), offering a combination of organic development and acquisition driven growth, excellent free cash flow generation driving a phase of de-leverage and exposure to still positively expectant infrastructure markets in GB and Ireland. We retain a positive view on Breedon at this level.
Companies: Breedon Group PLC
Who would have thought when reporting pre-tax losses of £10m after the first half to end June that Breedon would emerge so strongly from lockdown to trade through July-August (and into September) with LFL revenues ahead of comparative 2019 and expected H2 EBIT broadly in line with the equivalent 2019, resulting in a reinstatement of guidance ahead of current FY20 consensus. That is a mark of confidence as much in the group's operating capabilities as market recovery itself – a feature of Breedon's management quality over a consistent period of time. Investors will be impressed by the short-term recovery but also encouraged that the longer-term outlook remains positive with an emphasis to infrastructure markets in GB and Ireland plus, of course, its unrivalled ability to utilise its asset base very efficiently and to add to that platform with accretive acquisitions. The shares hit a COVID ‘low' of 63p but were trading as high as 100p in February. We would see that upper level as the more likely direction of travel for the shares with 90p justified by a forward 2022E rating of 7.5x EV/EBITDA, c14x PE, commencement of dividends and significant deleveraging through high net cash flow generation.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Guild Esports a UK-based owner and developer of esports teams, has announced its intention to seek a listing of its ordinary shares to the Standard Listing segment of the London Stock Exchange this autumn. its founding shareholders include David Beckham, former football player and captain of England, and now co-owner of new MLS team Inter Miami CF.
HOME REIT intends to float to the Main Market raising up to £250m. The Company will seek to contribute to the alleviation of homelessness in the UK, whilst targeting inflation-protected income and capital returns, by investing in a diversified portfolio of assets across the UK which will be dedicated to providing accommodation to the homeless. Due Mid October
S-VENTURES - The Company will look to identify investment opportunities in the wellness sector within the UK and Europe. Due 16 Sep on the Aquis Exchange.
Sativa Wellness Group—(Canadian Securities Exchange: STIL) renamed from Stillcanna Inc following the conditional acquisition of Sativa Group (AQSE:SATI) to list on the AQUIS Exchange. A fully integrated European seed to consumer CBD group with the pricing, products, and stability to meet the CBD market demand in the medium term. With world-class extraction and formulation experts, an agricultural team that has over 20 years’ experience farming hemp, along with laboratory testing capabilities, the group has established itself globally as a trusted source of high-grade, premium wholesale CBD brands and products.
Umuthi Healthcare Solutions Plc, the technology led healthcare business focused on the distribution of pharmaceuticals and the provision of medical facilities in remote areas, seeking admission to the Standard Listing segment of the Official List
The Hut Group. Expected intention to float on the Main Market. THG is a vertically integrated digital-first consumer brands group, retailing its own brands in beauty and nutrition plus third party brands, via its proprietary technology platform to an online and global customer base. For the year ended 31 December 2019, THG's revenue was £1.1 billion, up 24.5 per cent. year-on-year, and its Adjusted EBITDA was £111.3 million, representing an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.8 per cent . The Company has experienced an acceleration in growth during 2020, with revenue of £676 million, up 35.8 per cent. on the equivalent prior year period , achieved in the 6 months to 30 June 2020, which the Directors believe evidenced the non-discretionary nature of the nutrition and beauty categories .
Kibo Energy PLC, the multi-asset Africa focused energy company, is seeking admission for its 100% owned UK subsidiary Sloane Developments Ltd , which will be renamed Mast Energy Developments PLC (MED), to the Standard List of the London Stock Exchange plc . Targeted for Q4 2020. The MED business strategy is to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible small-scale power generation assets, exploiting a growth niche market in the UK for Reserve Power generation to balance out the national grid at critical times.
Companies: MIRI VAST VCP AEO GFIN DX/ BREE CIN LOOP PALM
Whilst it is still premature to re-introduce meaningful forecasts for Breedon, investors should certainly be encouraged by the fact that: (i) June revenues recovered to 99% (or 91% LFL) of comparable 2019 levels and July is showing further improvement, and (ii) the company has made no cuts to its operational capabilities or productive capacity suggesting that it sees the medium-term prospects for growth undaunted by post-COVID economic and/or industry output reassessment. The Cemex acquisition should complete in days, giving management new assets and operations to rationalise, improve and grow whilst the strong cash and liquidity performance through H1 eases fears over balance sheet stretch. Through the challenges posed by COVID management has demonstrated that it is adept at deploying both defensive and offensive strategies; hopefully with the accent switching back to the latter as we look into 2021 and beyond. Driven by more self-help initiatives, accretive acquisitions, rising spend on UK infrastructure and the relative growth in Irish markets, Breedon has appealing investment qualities that go beyond the current standard sector mantra of ‘recovery' value. We maintain a Buy recommendation.
We know that the contracting end of the industry has continued to site operate in a very piecemeal fashion throughout this pandemic, with limited official guidance beyond acceptable safe working practises. As more and more sites become accessible the main contractors' return to work will be largely self-determined and appear to the outside world as somewhat seamless. The greatest challenge facing the contractors in my view is the inefficiency of working in this new environment and supply chain reliability.
Companies: BREE BRCK CTO
Breedon is effectively moving to a (temporary) lockdown position on all its sites save Hope cement plant (which will produce to storage) and those in the Republic of Ireland where the principal customer is central and local government and as such will continue to operate until directed otherwise. Crucially, the group is in a strong financial and liquidity position with undrawn facilities of £220m and £60m in cash whilst any unwind of working capital from here is likely to actually generate cash. Moreover, the planned £155m cash outlay on the Cemex assets to be acquired is almost certain to be delayed beyond the coronavirus period due to the associated stalling of the TUPE process and IT migration. This position seen against a cash ‘burn' of probably no more than £15m per month (gross of any government support schemes and noting employee cost is the largest single constituent of fixed overheads) is comfort indeed for shareholders. We are withdrawing our forecasts for 2020 (formerly £200.7m of EBITDA, £113m underlying PBT and 5.6p EPS) and beyond on the simple basis that we cannot predict either the depth or duration of the coronavirus impact. Nonetheless we are happy to retain a Buy on the basis that: (a) there will be no structural damage done to the group's operational, asset or financial base as a result of coronavirus, (b) it should see a rapid scale-up when normality returns and (c) management can be relied on to re-assert relative growth versus its peers which has been a hallmark of Breedon's history to date. For long term investors these are opportune times.
Breedon has once again proved its credentials and deserves to be the ‘go to' stock in the heavy building materials sector which is starting to have genuine cyclical appeal as government eyes a ‘generation' of enhanced infrastructure spend. The performance in 2019 was exemplary; this is a management that delivers regardless of market conditions and has a strategy that can sustain robust longer-term EPS and asset growth. A 2021E rating of 8x EV/EBITDA, PE of 14x and FCF yield of 7.5% alongside commencement of dividends is inexpensive and our model ‘fair value' of 96p conservatively excludes any future benefit of accretive acquisitions or re-rating prospect and scarcely reflects the new intent on income/dividends. From the dark days of Q3/19 when the price was driven down into the 60-70p range largely to facilitate a major re-composition of the shareholder base, subsequent recovery has seen the stock reach a 12-month, in fact all-time, high of 100p and now trades at 87p which is exactly double the price 5-years ago. We cannot promise another doubling over the next 5 years but do believe there is considerable long-term value in the shares.
The £178m cash acquisition of 100 active UK sites from Cemex is classic Breedon doing what it does best; buying good regional assets that currently yield poor returns that Breedon can restore to more appropriate and enhanced levels using a combination of operational, investment and strategic levers, alongside its more focussed and dedicated management supervision. It is not a ‘transformational' deal like Hope or Lagan, but is potentially more accretive long-term (especially versus the all cash consideration) and with less risk. First full year (2021E) EPS enhancement we conservatively estimate at c5% whilst by 2022E the transaction will cover its WACC and the group de-leverages to sub-1x. This ticks every box of Breedon's ‘buy & build consolidator' strategy and underpins the shares' attractiveness on value (pre-deal a 2021E EV/EBITDA of 7.5x and PER 13.8x) and strategic grounds. Acknowledging the recent strong performance of the shares, we continue to rate Breedon a Buy.
Breedon has readied fulfilment of its ambition to establish critical mass in the sizeable London ready-mix concrete market via a JV which ensures a lower risk (and cost) immediate presence alongside enhanced future expansion plans. Capital Concrete is an exciting bridgehead for Breedon in a key, under-represented regional market and one that has the potential to double its (pro-forma) scale in the medium-term. Whilst it will not move the dial on group numbers in the short term, it does reinforce our under-valuation arguments made in yesterday's post trading update report. We reiterate a Buy rating.
With the share price off 16.5% over the past month and virtually 25% of the company's equity having been ‘re-housed' over the past quarter, investors are probably craving a period of stability. In trading terms that's exactly what Breedon is delivering. The latest update (to end-October) is reassuring and firmly underpins valuation. As noted very recently (see ‘Stick with the fundamentals', 7 November 2019), Breedon shares have never been as cheaply rated in their entire history; the prospective 2020E EV/EBITDA being c6.4x, PE c11x and a healthy FCF yield of over 9% with nominal FCF sweating debt by over £90m per annum, or helping to support its proven accretive add-on acquisition strategy. In our view, this recent, technical, bout of price depression represents an excellent buying opportunity.
The Pebble Group, a provider of products, services and technology to the global promotional products industry, announces its intention to seek admission of its shares to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, which is expected to take place in early December 2019.The Group delivered revenue of £99.8m in the year ended 31 December 2018.No mention of bottom line and a suggestion that funds raised would provide an exit to private equity shareholders and the repayment of debt. Offer TBA.
Longboat Energy raising £10m. Expected admission November 2019. The company has been established by the former management team of Faroe Petroleum to create a new full-cycle North Sea oil and gas company .The strategy to achieve this will initially be through the acquisition of assets where the management team can add value through subsurface and operational improvements, follow-up deal opportunities and nearfield exploration; and by value creation through the drill bit.
Companies: FO TPFG DNL FIF BREE GRL AVO EMH
Breedon again finds itself victim of the curse of ‘technicals' rather than ‘fundamentals'. After being caught in the Woodford maelstrom, this time the secondary placing of M1 Cement's 139.7m shares yesterday has de-coupled the price to almost a 12-month ‘low' (and 24% below its ‘high'), where, we believe, the shares are seriously undervalued. On broadly consensus numbers the stock now trades on a 2020E EV/EBITDA multiple of just over 6x and a PE of under 11x with strong FCF potentially paying down debt in excess of £90m per annum. These are ratios that are not only cheap in their own right but also by peer comparison. Once the dust settles on the placing, we believe this price level will prove to have been an excellent buying opportunity and have no hesitation in re-iterating our Buy recommendation.
Kaspi.kz, the largest Payments, Marketplace and Fintech Ecosystem in Kazakhstan with a leading market share in each of its key products and services. GDR offering expected Oct 2019. In the first half of 2019, the Company generated total revenue of KZT226,862m (U.S. $598m), up 34% and net income of KZT77,001m (U.S. $203m), up 54%. Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019.
Companies: THR MXCP BREE GAN SHRE MANO AAZ MAI AMYT
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The group’s year-end update points to stronger than expected Q4 trading, boosted by robust sales in North America that translated efficiently to upside on profitability expectations. Cash performance has once again been stellar, resulting in net cash of $35m, considerably higher than forecast, partly profit drop-through and partly from tight working capital management. We are therefore upgrading our FY 2020 EPS by 25% to 33.2ȼ. The strong cash position also results in a boost to the total dividend, giving a dividend yield of 6.7%. We raise our price target from 285p to 435p, based on a target P/E of 17.0x offering upside to the current P/E of 13.8x.
Companies: Somero Enterprises, Inc.
Last night, Qualcomm delivered a keynote speech at its Automotive Redefined event where it iterated its partnership with Seeing Machines for DMS on its ‘Snapdragon Ride' platform. In the same keynote speech Qualcomm noted that it has won 20 different OEMs (through many different tier 1 suppliers and partners, including Seeing Machines) which are going into production in 2021 with its Gen 3 Snapdragon Ride platform. We do not see this as meaning that these OEMs will automatically adopt Seeing Machines DMS in 2021 for these platforms (other PR materials imply the optimised DMS solution is not yet ready), but the implication from the Qualcomm slide (on the page 2) is that a number will. We also believe it is unlikely that these OEMs will chose an alternative DMS solution for these vehicles when they want or require it. With regulatory compliance needed for NCAP and EC by 2024, it is our view that most of these OEMs will eventually source Seeing Machines DMS for at least their EU sales using the scalable Gen 3 Snapdragon Ride platform. In a separate press release Seeing Machines and Qualcomm have also announced a deepening collaboration with Seeing Machines further optimising its technology stack for the Snapdragon Automotive Cockpit Platform architecture as the two companies market the combined framework to automotive Tier-1s and OEMs. In addition, Seeing Machines's previously announced Embedded Development Kit (EDK) for Qualcomm's Snapdragon Automotive Cockpit Development is now available to select Tier 1 and OEM customers.
We increase our target price to 12.9p from 8.6p based on increased confidence in our long-term automotive market share expectations.
Companies: Seeing Machines Limited
Today’s FY20 trading update indicates that the business did not miss a step in FY20. Underlying profitability was very marginally ahead yoy and net debt has peaked and, with the factory move completing later this year this, will fall increasingly quickly. Looking forward, FY21 will see significant growth, underpinned by the LAICA contribution, but importantly underlying organic growth is expected to be c.10%. Trading has started well in the new financial year providing confidence in forecasts at this early juncture. Strong organic and acquisitive growth drives an 10% increase in profitability and the dividend for FY21. With the platform to deliver significant growth in revenue and earnings over the next five years, 15.5x current year earnings is appealing. Particularly for a business with such defensive cash flows. This is evidenced by a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. We increase FY20 profit forecasts marginally to reflect guidance in today’s statement and lower net debt.
Companies: Strix Group PLC
Inspiration Healthcare has announced it expects revenues and profits for the year ending January 2021 to be ahead of market expectations. Revenues are expected to be at least £36.5m and adjusted EBITDA at least £4.9m. We have moved our FY21E forecasts into line with these expectations, which are c3% and c11% ahead of our previous forecasts for sales and adjusted EBITDA, respectively. We note the key driver of the upgrade was performance at S.L.E., which Inspiration Healthcare acquired in July 2020. We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Inspiration Healthcare.
Companies: Inspiration Healthcare Group PLC
TP Group experienced a material improvement in trading in H2/20, with the period accounting for nearly two thirds of the group's £3.8m FY20 Adj EBITDA, mainly due to the timing of some larger contracts. The order book remains robust at c£69m (up c20% YoY); however, the pandemic continues to create uncertainty around the timing of contract deliveries, and consequently, our forecasts remain withdrawn and our rating Under Review. Notwithstanding, we believe the significant operational changes made over the past year help to accelerate the business' software and consulting services, and leave the group well positioned for future growth.
Companies: TP Group Plc
Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Itaconix has confirmed a positive conclusion to FY20, with revenue, EBITDA and net cash all slightly ahead of expectations. This builds on the positive trends reported in October’s interims, driven by successful customer product launches. Itaconix enters FY21 with good momentum and strong sustainability credentials. We plan to introduce FY21 forecasts alongside full year results.
Companies: Itaconix plc
Filta's FY20 trading update confirms a much stronger performance for the group in H2 versus that in H1, boosted by an increasing number of customers opening up during the summer period. Despite Covid-19 significantly affecting the restaurant and leisure sector, a strong focus on cash management meant that Filta reduced its net debt (excluding leases) by £0.4m YoY to £0.5m. With a healthy sales pipeline, solid balance sheet cash position (£4.2m), and vaccine roll-out progress, management has more certainty in the business' outlook than at any time over the past 12 months. Notwithstanding, the speed at which trading conditions will return to normal remains unclear (eg potential impact from new strains of the virus emerging, unexpected delays in vaccine production etc). As such, we refrain from reinstating forecasts, and maintain our Hold rating.
Companies: Filta Group Holdings PLC
Directa Plus has had its contract with OMV Petrom extended and increased. The contract, initially awarded in July 2019, was for the provision of decontamination and oil recovery services using the Company's proprietary Grafysorber® technology. The initial value of the contract was €150k (of which €75k was delivered and invoiced in 2020) and this has now been increased to €410k, the balance of which is expected to be fulfilled by June 2021.
Companies: Directa Plus Plc
The Group made strategic progress in FY20A despite the onset of COVID-19. Management acted swiftly implementing a strict cost reduction programme, ensuring robust cash management. This combined with strengthening the Board and management teams, exploring new revenue streams and investing in technology to drive efficiency gains has positioned the Group to overcome short-term demand fluctuation. We are confident the Group will capitalise on the operational gearing within the business as demand levels revert to pre-pandemic levels. Corollary to this we expect financial performance to materially improve in H2/21 and beyond.
Companies: Velocity Composites Plc
Journeo is a specialist provider of information systems and technical services to the transportation sector. Following on from Friday's announcement confirming a further £1.3m order under the Transforming Cities Fund framework, the group has this morning announced a 1-year extension to its existing framework agreement with First Bus, worth an estimated £1.8m, the majority of which is expected to fall into the current financial year.
Companies: Journeo plc
Initiating with a Buy rating. We initiate our coverage of Proton Motor Power Systems (“Proton Motor”) with a BUY rating and a target price of 201p. Our valuation equates to a market capitalisation of £1.47bn, compared to a current share price of 65.5p and a market cap of £479m.
Companies: Proton Motor Power Systems Plc
Capital Limited has released its Q4 and FY2020 trading statement this morning. Overall it shows 2020 was a strong year for the company with revenue growing 18% and most other operating metrics growing positively with it – see Fig 1. We have adjusted our forecasts accordingly and also to take into account the mining services contract for the Sukari Mine which the company won late last year. The latter is a game changer for Capital and its investment case in our view; turbo charging revenue growth, enhancing margins and diversifying cashflow all of which should lead to materially higher valuation multiples. We raise our PT to 127p.
Companies: Capital Limited
Journeo is a specialist provider of information systems and technical services to the transportation sector. This morning, the group has announced that under its existing Transforming Cities Fund framework contracts, it has received further orders for its advanced public transport information systems.
Seeing Machines has announced that it has licensed its Occula® Neural Processing Unit to OmniVision Technologies Inc. This advances the relationship from the MOU announced in September 2020 and builds on a relationship that is over five years old, with the two organisations having worked on multiple automotive programmes with a number of Tier 1 customers.