LIBERUM: Severfield: Erratum: Better EPS and cashflow, and buyback

Severfield - Multiple positives should excite investors

Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Step change in European and Indian outlook

Severfield’s full-year results to March will be ‘slightly above’ the Board’s expectations, according to today’s trading update, with net debt significantly better. We maintain our PBT estimates for both forecast years, which are ahead of consensus, but reduce our net debt for FY24E. Record orders were boosted by the steel specialist’s European operations, after last year’s Voortman acquisition, while the Indian JV has seen ‘another step up in profitability’. The group has also launched its first

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Targeted acquisition strategy aids growth path

Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.

Severfield - FY24 expectations unchanged, order book robust

Severfield’s H124 results highlighted profit growth despite declining revenue, and management continues to expect full-year results to be in line with previous guidance. The total order book has also remained at elevated levels despite the loss of a large studio contract, highlighting the quality of future work in the UK and Europe, and that it is a key indicator of future earnings visibility. The FY24e P/E rating of 7.0x is comfortably below the long-term average of c 10x, implying some risk is

LIBERUM: Severfield: Strong growth prospects

LIBERUM: Severfield: Revenues lower but margins better

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Guidance reiterated after H1 profits increase

Severfield has reiterated its FY24E guidance after delivering a 17% increase in underlying PBT despite ‘challenging’ market conditions. We retain our profitability and cash flow estimates for FY24E and FY25E, with higher margin assumptions offsetting lower revenue projections. In our view, the long-term outlook continues to be underpinned by new markets, such as datacentres and nuclear work – plus a recent revival in London office work – with further growth likely from the group’s expansion in t

LIBERUM: HS2: Exploring the scenarios

Severfield - FY24 in line, but risks edge up further on

Severfield’s AGM statement highlights that FY24 is expected be in line with management expectations and that the quality of the orderbooks – both in the UK and Europe, and India – remains a key support for the future. That said, the outlook for the UK and continental Europe is less robust in the short term than it was due to the impact of high inflation and the rising interest rate cycle. The FY24e P/E rating of c 7x remains comfortably below the long-term average of 10.0x, implying that some ri

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: FY outlook on track amid ‘positive’ markets

We are maintaining our forecasts for FY24E and beyond after this morning’s AGM statement from Severfield, which confirms that trading in the first five months has been in line with the group’s expectations, aided by its strong balance sheet. This is despite more challenging conditions in recent months due to building cost inflation, while the long-term outlook continues to be underpinned by new markets, such as datacentres and ‘giga-factories’, and the group’s expansion in the EU and India.

LIBERUM: Severfield: Strength in India

LIBERUM: Severfield: Multiple levers for earnings growth

Severfield - FY23 results highlight progress and strength

FY23 results highlight that we believe revenue quality remains materially underappreciated by the market (see our June update note), especially now the UK and EU are embarking on huge investment programmes to renew and upgrade infrastructure. In our view, the outlook in the UK, continental Europe, especially post recent M&A, and India is not fully reflected in the FY24e P/E rating of c 7.5x, which is comfortably below the long-term average of 10.0x. Our positive stance is supported by the compan

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: FY23 margins and cash beat expectations

Severfield’s adjusted PBT for the year to 25 March 2023 rose by 20%, beating our estimate by 4.1%, and there was significantly stronger cashflow. For now, we maintain our estimates. However, as discussed in our April note, the Project Horizon digitisation and other initiatives, plus growth potential in Europe and India, suggest upside to our FY25E forecasts. We also argue that greater revenue transparency offers the potential for a re-rating.

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hit $9,700/t as China smelts concentrates for zero charge Tc/Rc

LIBERUM: CEO Video: Matt Wragg, Gattaca plc:

Jersey Electricity - Decarbonisation fuelling growth

Jersey Electricity (JEL) is intensifying its focus on energy security and electrification across Jersey by creating opportunities to accelerate growth. It successfully navigated the volatile wholesale power price environment in 2020–23, shielding its customer base from the worst inflationary pressures. However, from 2025, as older, more favourable hedges expire, this protection will diminish. Therefore, we have marginally reduced our earnings forecasts to account for the increased exposure to wh

Quadrise+ (QED, House Stock at 1.4p) - Drilling to commence in Utah project

LIBERUM: New Energy Nuggets: Hydrogen - the future is green

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Strix (KETL LN) - FY23 results, forecasts rebased

Strix has reported FY23 results to 31 December 2023 with adjusted PAT of £20.1m, in line with our updated forecast and company guidance provided in January. Revenue grew 35.2% to £144.6m, benefitting from the full year inclusion of the Billi acquisition, albeit slightly below our forecast of £151.0m. Its core Kettle Controls division also performed robustly, growing 2.7%, ahead of the broader market and indicating market share gain. Recent acquisitions have noticeably improved the Group’s growth

Judges Scientific+ (JDG, House Stock at 8,900p) - HY; strong order book, FY23F unchanged

Invinity Energy Systems - Progress on Three Fronts

Invinity is making major progress commercially, technically and financially. A full manufacturing agreement has been signed with Taiwanese partner Everdura. This brings additional manufacturing capacity to serve the existing re-seller agreement without the need for new capital. Validation testing on the next-generation Mistral flow battery has verified performance targets, paving the way for commercial launch later in the year. Finally, discussions on one or more strategic partnerships are progr

Invinity Energy Systems - Update on Strategic Investment

Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.

Morning Note – 4 April 2024