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21 Jan 2022
Coats Group : Still looking good - Buy

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Coats Group : Still looking good - Buy
Coats Group plc (COA:LON) | 79.6 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 1,526m
- Published:
21 Jan 2022 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Thomas Rands, CFA | Rory Smith -
Pages:
7 -
Housekeeping: We update our forecasts to reflect the recovery momentum seen in customer volumes during 3Q21 and our expectation that this continued through 4Q21 despite the residual Covid-19 disruption to customer production.
FY21E upgrades: We increase our FY21E adjusted EBITA estimate by 8.1% to $190.3m, driven by a 9.8% increase in our revenue forecast (to $1,432m, up $127m) partly offset by a minor 20bps decrease in our adjusted EBITA margin to 13.5%. These changes reflect a continuation of volume recovery (+6% in Jan-Oct 2021 versus the 2019 comparative period) in 4Q21 versus our previous estimate and the benefit of higher selling prices as cost inflation (mainly raw materials, energy and freight) is passed through. Minor changes to finance and tax charges result in our FY21E adjusted EPS increasing 11.1% to 6.5c.
Outer year upside risk: The higher FY21E revenue base also lifts our outer years by 10% (FY22E up to $1,494m and FY23E to $1,543m). This higher revenue is mostly offset by our assumptions of increased operating costs and lower Performance Materials (PM) margins, reflecting the current US labour cost inflation and availability headwinds. Our FY22E adjusted EPS increases by 1.8% to 7.2c, and FY23E by 2.1% to 7.7c. There is scope for PM margins to improve more quickly if the company accelerates its automation plans or US labour market restrictions ease.
Stronger balance sheet: Our cashflow estimates now reflect an assumption that pension contributions reduce in outer years. This is due to the deficit on the main UK pension scheme declining significantly in FY21, thereby increasing the likelihood of a lower company contribution agreement at the next tri-annual review (due by end-2022). Our FY23E net debt reduces by $44m to $128m or 0.5x our FY23E adjusted EBITDA, giving significant capital for organic investment, further bolt-on M&A, and dividend growth. Prelims due 3 March.