This content is only available within our institutional offering.
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Valuation anomaly at 2008 levels (9x P/E, 7% yield)
- Published:
15 Feb 2018 -
Author:
Matthew McEachran -
Pages:
3 -
Despite a good overall performance in a challenging market leaving “full year profit expectations unchanged”, the stock has fallen a further 30% to a 1 year low de-rating 5.5 P/E points. This feels anomalous given the growth opportunity remains, and in light of the latest FX, employment, and wage inflation data, and expected thawing of views on real wages. We analyse the profit shift to Financial Services, balance sheet gearing, debtor securitisation prospects and IFRS-9 adoption in a year, and conclude the valuation discount (P/E <9x, yield 7%) is unjustified at 2008 crisis levels. Even assigning a 20% discount to Financial Services book value implies a c50-60% discount on Retail (EV/sales). Our 290p 12-month target price points to a 48% TSR. Buy.