Capital Limited has released its Q4 and FY2020 trading statement this morning. Overall it shows 2020 was a strong year for the company with revenue growing 18% and most other operating metrics growing positively with it – see Fig 1. We have adjusted our forecasts accordingly and also to take into account the mining services contract for the Sukari Mine which the company won late last year. The latter is a game changer for Capital and its investment case in our view; turbo charging revenue growth, enhancing margins and diversifying cashflow all of which should lead to materially higher valuation multiples. We raise our PT to 127p.
Companies: Capital Limited
Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Resumption of drilling at the Clogau mine Capital Limited (CAPD LN) / Centamin (CEY LN) – Progress on Sukari contract Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Phase-2 drilling commenced at Eclipse Gold Project Rambler Metals and Mining* (RMM LN) – Appointment of new CFO
Companies: ALBA CAPD CEY EEE RMM
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) – BUY, 132p – New 6,300m drilling programme underway at Tabakorole | Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Drilling results from Clogau mine Ariana Resources* (AAU LN) – Sale of satellite deposits at Kiziltepe | Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – Small kimberlite identified in drilling at Thorny River | Capital Limited (CAPD LN) – Contract entered at Sukari Gold Mines and £22m placing proposed | Centamin (CEY LN) – Waste stripping contract awarded at Sukari | Hummingbird Resources (HUM LN) – 2020 production to come in below the 110-125koz guidance | Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Appointment of financing advisors in New York
Companies: ALS ALBA BOD AAU CAPD CEY HUM PXC
Less than a fortnight after a major new contract announcement in West Africa, Capital has announced the expansion of its operations at Barrick Gold’s Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania. The contracts include a five-year laboratory services contract for MSALABS, together with a two-year underground grade control drilling contract. Capital commenced operations at Bulyanhulu in February 2020, undertaking a deep hole delineation drilling program. The successful execution of this resulted in an expansion of services, with two underground rigs added to operations from May. The new contract will expand the underground fleet to four, utilising two rigs from the existing fleet and including the acquisition of a further two rigs.
Capital (LSE: CAPD), a leading mining services company focused on the African markets, announced this morning the award of a new contract and subsequent mobilisation of an initial four drill rigs to Firefinch Limited's Morila Gold Mine in Mali. The rigs are part of Capital's existing West African fleet and will undertake an extensive delineation program under a two-year preferred contractor agreement between Firefinch and Capital. The first rig is now on site, with the balance scheduled to arrive during the current quarter.
Capital Limited (LSE: CAPD) this morning provided its Q3 2020 trading update. Revenues are up 8.3% on the prior quarter and broadly in line with our forecasts, driven by strong rig utilisation performance - a trend we expect to continue given the strong macro outlook and announced new contract wins. We are keeping our FY/2020 revenue forecasts unchanged at US$138.3 million.
Capital Limited (LSE: CAPD) this morning released its 2020 H1 financial results. They also held a presentation to discuss them and the outlook for the business. Overall, H1/20 was a very robust performance in the face of a challenging environment with EBITDA increasing 21.3% YoY to $15.4m (vs Tamesis $14.5m) and EPS +168% to 10.0cps driven partly by a massive increase in net gains from equity investment. As a result, the Board has decided to increase the dividend to 0.9cps. The company has clearly weathered the Covid-19 storm with aplomb, and is now set to benefit from the effect of the huge rise in the gold price, to which its business is more than 90% exposed. We increase our TP to 102p.
Strong YoY growth in revenue continues. The company achieved H12020 revenues of US$65.1 million up 18.8% and 8.5% YoY and HoH respectively. The company’s successful push into West Africa continues to be the principle driver of this growth alongside better contracts generally. On a quarterly basis they were essentially flat QoQ – see below- as were the operating metrics in general. They were slightly lower than our forecasts, but it should be noted that we had not altered our assumptions despite Covid19 which we have now done for our full year estimates as per the table above and end of note. We would point out that we are expecting a pick-up in H2 partly due to recovery from Covid 19 as well as the beneficial effects of the strong gold price environment (the company generates 90% of its revenues from gold related activities). Full interim financial results are to be released on 20 August 2020.
Our view – strong growth in the face of Covid19 fully justifying strategy whilst highlighting resilience of business
Anglo American (AAL LN) – Green Hydrogen Consortium with BHP, Fortescue and Hatch | Arc Minerals (ARCM LN) –– Sale of CASA Mining asset for US$5m loan note plus royalty agreement worth up to $45m | Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – 2020 Production guidance | Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Appointment of Eskom trouble-shooter Ms Mokgatle as an Independent Non-Executive Director | Capital Drilling (CAPD LN) – After-tax profit rises 34% in 2019 | Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – £2.9m equity raise | Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Letseng small diamond tender succumbs to anti-virus precautions | Highland Gold (HGM LN) – Capital projects update
Companies: AAL ARCM AAU BMN CAPD CORA GEMD
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning released its 2019 full year financial results, having already provided a trading update on 16 January 2020 including revenue and utilisation figures.
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning provided its Q4/2019 trading update and its unaudited FY/2019 consolidated trading update. Capital achieved full year revenues of US$114.8 million, at the mid-point of US$110-120 million guidance. Revenues for the quarter were broadly in line with our expectations. Lower ARPOR due to greater proportion of exploration contracts and single-shift operations was offset by higher utilisation rates. Using this updated revenue figure, we now estimate EBITDA of US$26.6 million for FY2019, a margin of 23%, and profit after tax of US$9.8 million.
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning provided its Q3/2019 trading update. The key ARPOR (average monthly revenue per operating rig) metric (see fig 1.) is below our forecasts but revenue is slightly ahead (due to non-drill revenue from other businesses including MSA labs). There are also new contract wins starting in Q4 which has led us to slightly upgrade our FY/2019 revenue forecasts to US$115.5 million.
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Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
2020 ended with two positive moves for carbon capture and storage (CCS) which should benefit Velocys clients. In the US, the signing of the COVID 19 stimulus bill extends and adds support for CCS in the US where the Bayou project is working with CO2 offtaker Occidental to deliver a negative emissions project. The UK government has also published guidance on CCS funding making this option an additional opportunity for the Altalto project. Velocys remains one of the very few opportunities for investors to play negative emission technology. We see both these moves improving the operating environment for the company’s clients and their projects, stimulating demand for the Velocys technology.
Companies: Velocys plc
XP reported a strong finish to 2020, with Q4 revenues up 24% y-o-y and 4% ahead of our forecast, driving FY20 profitability ahead of expectations. Order intake has normalised to pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting continued strong demand from the semiconductor sector. We have revised our estimates to reflect strong Q420 performance and the weaker dollar, driving a 3.0% increase in FY20 EPS and a 2.3% cut to our FY21 EPS.
Companies: XP Power Ltd.
Avingtrans has announced that it has continued to perform well in H1 FY2021 and is trading in line with market expectations. Our cautiously framed forecasts anticipate adjusted EPS growth of 17% in FY2021E and 10% in FY2022E, including the benefit of cost reduction measures. The Group confirmed high levels of order cover for FY2021E at 85% at the end of September and orders taken since then will have provided further comfort. The shares have given ground YTD and now trade on a forward EV/sales multiple of 0.9x and prospective PERs of 13.8x and 12.7x for FY2021E and FY2022E respectively which are well below sector metrics. Management is also making great progress within the medical division where the potential for its small scale MRI is substantial.
Companies: Avingtrans plc
Today’s update confirms a strong recovery in H2 FY2020E as expected and a full year adjusted PBT at least in line with FY2019, despite a material impact from Covid and the depressed oil price resulting in a decline in Augean’s North Sea Services business. The FY2020E outturn demonstrates the resilience of the Group and the strong attractions of its growing EfW activities that now account for c.70% of Group profit. Augean is very well positioned in the EfW residue market and with c.40% of the UK’s hazardous landfill capacity. We forecast Group earnings growth of 15% and 21% for FY2021E and FY2022E, and expect further strong cash generation. EV/EBITDAs for FY2021E and FY2022E are 5.7x and 4.5x respectively, substantially below sector constituents and transaction multiples.
Companies: Augean PLC
Augean has proven to be resilient throughout the pandemic. In particular, the growth in processing incinerator ash residues from energy from waste (EfW) facilities continues unabated and additional new contract wins should drive improved returns in FY21. Management expects FY20 adjusted PBT to be slightly ahead of last year and we have marginally reduced our FY20 adjusted PBT and EPS estimates by 1%. Our FY21 estimates are maintained. Cash flow has been stronger than we expected, underpinning the indication that dividends should resume in FY21.
Like many awful dreams, the Covid19 nightmare hasn’t quite finished, recently mutating into an ultracontagious super-bug. The risk being global transmission and infection rates spiral out of control, swamping healthcare systems again. However this time there is an answer. Hunker down for a few months, and inoculate as many vulnerable people as possible to reduce fatalities/hospitalisations. Plus, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is relatively simple to distribute (re 2°C to 8°C). Making rapid nationwide rollouts feasible, alongside ultimately bringing the curtain down on this dreadful virus.
Companies: Mpac Group PLC
Initiating with a Buy rating. We initiate our coverage of Proton Motor Power Systems (“Proton Motor”) with a BUY rating and a target price of 201p. Our valuation equates to a market capitalisation of £1.47bn, compared to a current share price of 65.5p and a market cap of £479m.
Companies: Proton Motor Power Systems Plc
A £10m fundraising expedites the Protos project and opens the way for the £10.2m Peel warrant exercise in the current year. The funding will also give the company additional resources to pursue international opportunities. Adjusting for the raise and some timing differences, our UK only base valuation rises from 5.0p to the raise price of 5.5p and we see existing international opportunities taking this to 7.5p (from 6.9p) and including opportunities in Europe this could rise to 12.1p (from 11.2p).
Companies: Powerhouse Energy Group PLC
Directa Plus has released a trading update guiding to revenue for FY20 of approximately €6.5m. This is 9% ahead of the €6.0m in the trading update from 3 December and 18% ahead of our expectations of €5.5m which were set on 24 September 2020. The strong trading performance has been primarily driven by the sales of G+ enhanced face masks, including Co-Masks, and the strengthening performance of Setcar in the Environmental Division.
Companies: Directa Plus Plc
Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: IUG CBP KAT APP RST DIS NICL BOKU CNIC HE1
AFC Energy (AFC) – Corporate – Strategic Partnership with Ricardo
Companies: AFC Energy plc
Today’s positive trading update provides further encouragement for investors. The shares have been appreciating steadily on the back of last month’s fund raise and acquisition, followed by a major contract win and the £2.5m sale of the remaining RTLS stake, which had previously been largely written off. Both FY20 revenue and adj. LBITDA are better than forecast and YE net cash is particularly healthy. The integration of OSPi is underway, with all staff already transferred. We adjust FY20 forecasts and reiterate future forecasts. Future cash expectations are lifted by the higher YE balance as well as the sale of the remaining RTLS holding.
Companies: IQGeo Group PLC
Seeing Machines has announced that it has licensed its Occula® Neural Processing Unit to OmniVision Technologies Inc. This advances the relationship from the MOU announced in September 2020 and builds on a relationship that is over five years old, with the two organisations having worked on multiple automotive programmes with a number of Tier 1 customers.
Companies: Seeing Machines Limited
Directa Plus has released a positive trading update, prompting an increase in FY20 revenue forecasts after a strong conclusion to the year. The outperformance has come from Setcar and, again, from better than expected sales of G+ enhanced face masks (one of the drivers of revenue upgrades in early December). The Group enters FY21 with momentum and, in our view, attractive medium term growth potential, having responded very well to the challenges of the COVID pandemic.
