There was no significant new information in this trading update. Both traffic and sales figures were in line with our expectations and saw similar trends to Vinci. The significant increase in the order book was mainly due to the production postponement in H1.
Eiffage expects a marked decline in the FY20 results, but has not provided any quantifiable guidance.
Companies: Eiffage SA
Just like Vinci, Eiffage too paid for its large exposure to concessions and France. Revenues were down by 19.6% at constant scope and FX with Concessions revenue down by 23.2% and Contracting revenue down by 18.9%. Geographically, France was the most impacted country with revenue down by 21.7%. Revenue in Europe ex France was down by 12% (with revenue even up by 8.7% in Germany) and, outside Europe, it was down by just 5.8%.
Eiffage has released its Q1 20 results which were in line with our estimates. Sales were down by 4.3%: contracting -5.3% (-5.5% lfl) and concessions +0.3% (-4.5% lfl). Concessions benefited from the perimeter effect of Toulouse Airport. The contracting orderbook stood at €15bn, up by 5% over three months. Management has not given any guidance for 2020.
Eiffage has published its results which were in line with our estimates. Revenues increased by 9.4% (+7.7% lfl) with contracting activities growing by 8.8% lfl and concessions by 2.9% lfl. The highlight was the Infrastructure business, with 37.1% growth in civil engineering works (buoyed by the work on the Grand Paris Express). A significant improvement in the margins wasn’t observed. We anticipate a slower growth in revenues but a margin improvement in 2020. Eiffage proposed a dividend payment of €2.80/share.
There was no significant information in the trading update.
Following this earnings release, we intend to keep our recommendation unchanged.
Contracting’s sales increased 14%, whereas concessions’ revenues increased only by 1.3%. Construction’s profits suffered from being back-end loaded.
Infrastructure (public works) management showed caution as strong volumes were not matched by slow margin recognition.
The overall earnings outlook remains satisfactory.
Contracting businesses registered an outstanding growth in Q1 19. However, concessions, the biggest contributor to EBITDA generation, disappointed us, because of mainly stable traffic figures.
As this is a trading update, information was limited.
Overall, we believe that this first quarter is a good millesimal and that it reinforces the probability of the company to meet consensus for FY19. We expect little change to our model.
Eiffage published a set of figures which were in line with consensus but toll roads traffic disappoints us somewhat, mainly because of the “Yellow Vests” unrest.
The big question is what will be the impact of the 30% discount. Note that French APRR toll roads account for 40% of gross assets in our NAV, so this will be key to forecast next year’s EBITDA contribution from toll roads. Overall, we guestimate an impact of less than 5% on EBITDA.
Despite the deceleration in Concessions’ revenues and the decrease in the order book over Q3 18, we believe that the upbeat activity in Contracting will allow the company to post a strong set of figures for FY18.
Following this trading update, we expect to increase our target price and keep our Buy recommendation.
The company registered a sharp improvement in traffic despite a record level in oil prices, though this may not continue unabated in the near future.
For us, the decrease in building permits is not a threat to Eiffage’s financial performance, as with only a 3% market share it could still grow in a declining market. Moreover, its residential construction activity is located mainly near Paris where the needs for new construction are higher.
We expect to keep our current Add recommendation.
Sales met analysts’ estimate thanks to the international operations.
The sales trading update highlights a strong recovery in the Contracting activities, supported by the award of two projects linked to the Grand Paris Express project. The second quarter could prove to be less successful as Easter was in Q1 this year.
We expect to keep our current Reduce recommendation.
Eiffage released a strong set of FY results, marked by the continued momentum in heavy vehicle traffic on the group’s toll roads, solid orders in Contracting with slightly higher margins fuelled by favourable volume effects while the full-year dividend has been increase by a third, to €2 per share (AV: €1.7).
Eiffage released a solid set of 9M 17 figures, marked by an equally strong performance of both the Contracting activities and Concessions.
For the nine-month period:
Revenue up 7.1%, to €10,776m (+6% lfl)
Contracting up 7.1%, to €8,683m (+5.7% lfl)
Concessions up 7.2%, to €2,093m (+7.4% lfl)
Order book up 8.7%, at €13bn
Eiffage released a strong set of first half results, marked by robust contracting activities, whose growth outpaced that of Concessions for the first time since 2009.
Revenue up 7.6%, to €6,993m
Operating profit up 7.4%, to €727m
Net profit up 30.8%, to €174m
Net debt down €367m, to €11,501m
Order book up 7%
The group announced the acquisition of Saipem’s Maritime construction business, a non-core asset part of its Offshore E&C division. The business is estimated to have generated around €100m worth of revenue in 2016 from works concentrated mainly in Kuwait, Congo and Panama. Completion is expected to occur in late 2017.
Eiffage released a solid set of Q1 results, marked by the confirmation of the previous guidance, stronger-than-expected Contracting and resilient Concessions despite lower traffic on unfavourable calendar effects.
Total group revenue up 7.6% (+6.2% lfl)
Contracting up 8.4% (+6.7% lfl)
Concessions up 4.2%
Order book up 7.7 yoy, or +5.2% sequentially
Unsurprisingly, management confirmed the previous guidance of a slight increase in sales, along with another increase in earnings.
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Capital Limited has released its Q4 and FY2020 trading statement this morning. Overall it shows 2020 was a strong year for the company with revenue growing 18% and most other operating metrics growing positively with it – see Fig 1. We have adjusted our forecasts accordingly and also to take into account the mining services contract for the Sukari Mine which the company won late last year. The latter is a game changer for Capital and its investment case in our view; turbo charging revenue growth, enhancing margins and diversifying cashflow all of which should lead to materially higher valuation multiples. We raise our PT to 127p.
Companies: Capital Limited
Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
2020 ended with two positive moves for carbon capture and storage (CCS) which should benefit Velocys clients. In the US, the signing of the COVID 19 stimulus bill extends and adds support for CCS in the US where the Bayou project is working with CO2 offtaker Occidental to deliver a negative emissions project. The UK government has also published guidance on CCS funding making this option an additional opportunity for the Altalto project. Velocys remains one of the very few opportunities for investors to play negative emission technology. We see both these moves improving the operating environment for the company’s clients and their projects, stimulating demand for the Velocys technology.
Companies: Velocys plc
XP reported a strong finish to 2020, with Q4 revenues up 24% y-o-y and 4% ahead of our forecast, driving FY20 profitability ahead of expectations. Order intake has normalised to pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting continued strong demand from the semiconductor sector. We have revised our estimates to reflect strong Q420 performance and the weaker dollar, driving a 3.0% increase in FY20 EPS and a 2.3% cut to our FY21 EPS.
Companies: XP Power Ltd.
Avingtrans has announced that it has continued to perform well in H1 FY2021 and is trading in line with market expectations. Our cautiously framed forecasts anticipate adjusted EPS growth of 17% in FY2021E and 10% in FY2022E, including the benefit of cost reduction measures. The Group confirmed high levels of order cover for FY2021E at 85% at the end of September and orders taken since then will have provided further comfort. The shares have given ground YTD and now trade on a forward EV/sales multiple of 0.9x and prospective PERs of 13.8x and 12.7x for FY2021E and FY2022E respectively which are well below sector metrics. Management is also making great progress within the medical division where the potential for its small scale MRI is substantial.
Companies: Avingtrans plc
Today’s update confirms a strong recovery in H2 FY2020E as expected and a full year adjusted PBT at least in line with FY2019, despite a material impact from Covid and the depressed oil price resulting in a decline in Augean’s North Sea Services business. The FY2020E outturn demonstrates the resilience of the Group and the strong attractions of its growing EfW activities that now account for c.70% of Group profit. Augean is very well positioned in the EfW residue market and with c.40% of the UK’s hazardous landfill capacity. We forecast Group earnings growth of 15% and 21% for FY2021E and FY2022E, and expect further strong cash generation. EV/EBITDAs for FY2021E and FY2022E are 5.7x and 4.5x respectively, substantially below sector constituents and transaction multiples.
Companies: Augean PLC
Augean has proven to be resilient throughout the pandemic. In particular, the growth in processing incinerator ash residues from energy from waste (EfW) facilities continues unabated and additional new contract wins should drive improved returns in FY21. Management expects FY20 adjusted PBT to be slightly ahead of last year and we have marginally reduced our FY20 adjusted PBT and EPS estimates by 1%. Our FY21 estimates are maintained. Cash flow has been stronger than we expected, underpinning the indication that dividends should resume in FY21.
Like many awful dreams, the Covid19 nightmare hasn’t quite finished, recently mutating into an ultracontagious super-bug. The risk being global transmission and infection rates spiral out of control, swamping healthcare systems again. However this time there is an answer. Hunker down for a few months, and inoculate as many vulnerable people as possible to reduce fatalities/hospitalisations. Plus, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is relatively simple to distribute (re 2°C to 8°C). Making rapid nationwide rollouts feasible, alongside ultimately bringing the curtain down on this dreadful virus.
Companies: Mpac Group PLC
Initiating with a Buy rating. We initiate our coverage of Proton Motor Power Systems (“Proton Motor”) with a BUY rating and a target price of 201p. Our valuation equates to a market capitalisation of £1.47bn, compared to a current share price of 65.5p and a market cap of £479m.
Companies: Proton Motor Power Systems Plc
A £10m fundraising expedites the Protos project and opens the way for the £10.2m Peel warrant exercise in the current year. The funding will also give the company additional resources to pursue international opportunities. Adjusting for the raise and some timing differences, our UK only base valuation rises from 5.0p to the raise price of 5.5p and we see existing international opportunities taking this to 7.5p (from 6.9p) and including opportunities in Europe this could rise to 12.1p (from 11.2p).
Companies: Powerhouse Energy Group PLC
Directa Plus has released a trading update guiding to revenue for FY20 of approximately €6.5m. This is 9% ahead of the €6.0m in the trading update from 3 December and 18% ahead of our expectations of €5.5m which were set on 24 September 2020. The strong trading performance has been primarily driven by the sales of G+ enhanced face masks, including Co-Masks, and the strengthening performance of Setcar in the Environmental Division.
Companies: Directa Plus Plc
Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: IUG CBP KAT APP RST DIS NICL BOKU CNIC HE1
AFC Energy (AFC) – Corporate – Strategic Partnership with Ricardo
Companies: AFC Energy plc
Today’s positive trading update provides further encouragement for investors. The shares have been appreciating steadily on the back of last month’s fund raise and acquisition, followed by a major contract win and the £2.5m sale of the remaining RTLS stake, which had previously been largely written off. Both FY20 revenue and adj. LBITDA are better than forecast and YE net cash is particularly healthy. The integration of OSPi is underway, with all staff already transferred. We adjust FY20 forecasts and reiterate future forecasts. Future cash expectations are lifted by the higher YE balance as well as the sale of the remaining RTLS holding.
Companies: IQGeo Group PLC
Seeing Machines has announced that it has licensed its Occula® Neural Processing Unit to OmniVision Technologies Inc. This advances the relationship from the MOU announced in September 2020 and builds on a relationship that is over five years old, with the two organisations having worked on multiple automotive programmes with a number of Tier 1 customers.
Companies: Seeing Machines Limited