FY23 in line but DPS rebased; FY24e PBT unchanged

Portmeirion has delivered FY23 results in line with our estimates and FY24 PBT guidance has been maintained. While trading conditions are expected to remain challenging in the near-term, especially in South Korea, there is a clear focus on protecting earnings and maximising future profitability. To this end, 10% of the cost base has been reduced for FY24. The BS has improved with net debt lowered to £7.9m (vs £10.1m FY22). With debt reduction remaining a priority and given macro uncertainty, the

Portmeirion+ (PMP, House Stock at 265p) - FY23A results, PBT on track for FY24F

Portmeirion + (PMP, House at 280p) - FY23F trading update

FY23 in line but FY24 recovery pushed to the right

Portmeirion navigated a tricky Q4, with a good Christmas performance enabling it to meet FY23 PBT expectations. This is both a relief and a good outcome. We are however having to dial back FY24 estimates to reflect signalling of ongoing macro related caution for the US and South Korea. The challenges here remain market/consumer driven than PMP specific. Net, our FY23 PBT estimate remains unchanged but FY24 and FY25 are downgraded by 36%/28%. We remain confident about mid-term prospects given ope

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 19-10-2023

19th October 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

Portmeirion+ (PMP, House Stock at 240p) - Promising progress with Spode

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 September 23

14th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob

Interims – FY expectations unchanged; value emerging

Soft interims as anticipated with no change to FY guidance. North America retailer de-stocking issues had been well flagged, but set against this there is good evidence of resilient trading across UK, South Korea and ROW. We welcome current trading being in line and note encouraging Christmas orderbook/shipment commentary. Overall, we sense expectations have bottomed out. Given this the shares merit a closer look on recovery grounds for the medium term. They trade c.40% below NAV/share of 462p,

Portmeirion+ (PMP, House Stock, 293p) - No changes to profit forecasts after interims

North America softness triggers downgrades

News of a soft H1 North America outcome due to de-stocking will disappoint today. The softness however is contained, with the UK, South Korea and ROW showing y/y progress. With North America trends expected to continue into H2, management has lowered FY23 PBT expectations and we reflect this in downgrading by 68%, reflecting high operational leverage. We also opt to take a prudent view on outer year forecasts. Strategically, management continues to make good progress around geographic diversific

Portmeirion + (PMP, House Stock at 395p) - Tough first half on back of weak N. America

Portmeirion+ (PMP, House Stock, 418p) - Appointment of Non-executive Director

Portmeirion+ (PMP, House Stock, 508p) - No changes to forecasts on AGM statement

AGM update; benefitting from geographic diversity

Portmeirion has issued a brief AGM statement covering the traditionally quieter period of the year. Progress has been made YTD with geographical diversity and self-help being supportive features we understand. Overall, the expectation is for a flat H1 performance, which in the context of a challenging consumer backdrop would be a creditable outcome. We note USA has been singled out as showing customer caution in recent weeks re ordering and will need to be closely monitored over Q2. With c.80% o

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Surface Transforms plc (SCE LN) - Forecasts and valuation withdrawn

We note the regulatory announcement this morning from Surface Transforms and withdraw our estimates and valuation, pending conversations with management.

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Robust margin and cash performance

Surface Transforms (SCE LN) - Obstacles removed for higher production

Surface has issued a brief Q1 update. Production will ramp-up this year as final new equipment is installed, and manufacturing teething problems recede.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

Dowlais Group - Motoring forward

Dowlais Group’s first set of results were ahead of our expectations, with positive cash generation a highlight despite restructuring and demerger costs. Softer automotive markets will limit margin progress in FY24 towards the double-digit target. Despite this, margins of c 6.5% are still ahead of automotive peers, although the shares trade at a significant discount to our implied generic peer-based valuation.

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Morning Note – 4 April 2024

LIBERUM: New Energy Nuggets: Hydrogen - the future is green

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

Nexteq - FY23 adj EBITDA +4% ahead, FY24E upgrades of +1-10%

Nexteq’s FY23 results show adjusted EBITDA +4% ahead of the +6% upgrade at the January trading update, record FY23 EFCF of $17.4m, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E revenue and upgrade FY24E gross profit, adj EBITDA, and EFCF by +1-10%. The strategic focus on higher-margin products and customers reducing elevated inventory levels led FY23 group revenue -5% yoy to $114.3m, with Quixant 6% lower at $69.3m and Densitron 2% lower at $45.1m. Effective supply-chain managemen