Today’s year end update felt binary to us. Either performance would fall shy of downgraded expectations, and the recent market sell-off would have been well founded, or it would meet downgraded expectations – which would highlight the shares being significantly oversold. Given it is the latter, the question becomes how quickly and by how much the shares can re-rate. The 8.5x P/E (5.5x EV/EBITDA) equates to a 40% discount versus the group’s 5 year historical average. Recent underperformance means some of this is warranted in the near term. Taking a 12-month view we feel a 12x P/E (7x EV/EBITDA) is justifiable, equivalent to a 20% discount. Without being overly ambitious this derives a 12 month target price of 200p, offering a TSR of 56%. We therefore upgrade to BUY.