Cashflow beat strengthens no.1 consolidator’s hand

Given a tough backdrop, and storm disruption (especially in Dec/Jan), H2 sales came in shy of expectations. But one look at the better-than-expected net cash position, and it is clear ANG delivered a good overall financial performance. As the no.1 consolidator, this increases the scope for growth investment as market stress and capacity withdrawal increase. Plans in Europe remain on track, with its 1st Dutch store to open shortly. We see upside to our 48p target.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 24-10-2023

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Announced ITF 11 October: Cykel AI, the Company developing artificial intelligence AI software designed and trained to execute commands in response to natural language directives, specifically within the realm of computer interfaces, intends to join the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. Admission on or around 25 October. Announced ITF 2 October: Adsure Services, the holding company

Reassuring update as competitive advantage grows

Against a challenging backdrop, ANG has delivered H1 results ahead of expectations and EPS forecasts edge up. Strategic & operational initiatives within its control are progressing at pace and increasing competitive advantage. Alongside the potential for a new small store format to target under-served catchments, we see scope for ongoing profitable share gains in the UK. It still lacks scale in the EU but is carefully planning the transition to multi-channel, with its first store opening likely

Solid H1 update supported by strong UK momentum

Strong H1 trading in the main UK business reflects the benefits of strategic and operational initiatives. These are driving market share and give the Board confidence in delivering full year profit expectations despite EU growth, which has stepped up, currently tracking shy of our FY assumptions against a tough backdrop. With a strong B/S and growing competitive advantage, and multi-channel plans afoot in the EU, the recent rally was overdue and we remain at Buy.

Managing challenges while targeting opportunities

Results in FY23 are set against a very challenging industry backdrop, which included the wider inflation/cost of living crisis and the extreme weather/drought over the summer fishing season. Alongside investment in price and EU operations, EBITDA fell to £2.2m. With £14m net cash and £17m stock it retains a strong balance sheet, though, and is securely placed to meet short-term challenges should they persist. Crucially, strategic and operational initiatives within ANG’s control are progressing a

Board succession plans announced

Angling Direct has announced its Board succession plans today, which sees Andy Torrance (CEO since Feb20 and NED prior to that) move to the role of NED Chairman, to replace Martyn Page (co-founder) who stays on the Board as a NED. Steve Crowe (CFO since Jan20) will become CEO once an experienced CFO has been recruited to work alongside him. The earliest possible time these changes will be implemented will be the AGM (Jun23).

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 22 Feb 23

22 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Solid update and positioning for the new season

Full year sales were marginally ahead of our forecast, with a return to growth online in H2. Although down YoY, EBITDA is in line with expectations that we reduced back in October. Given a lowly valuation of 3x EV/EBITDA (or just 2x if value is assigned to EU operations), this should come as a relief. Notwithstanding macro uncertainties, ANG looks well placed ahead of the upcoming fishing season with an improved multi-channel proposition and record availability

Mining Monthly: January Edition

What you need to know: • Gold had strong start to the year rising over $100/oz to $1928/oz in January. Copper also rose dramatically, rallying 12% to $4.20/lb • We anticipate 2023 to be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly • Many central banks bought record levels of gold in January fuelling the price increase; gold takes hold as a safe-haven Sentiment Update As we anticipated from our December note, the mining se

Increasing trading volatility sees guidance reduced

H1 results were well trailed at the pre-close update in August, when forecasts were reduced to reflect the impact of the heatwave and drought conditions. While sales returned to modest growth in Sept, trading has been extremely volatile and unpredictable, and the general market outlook has deteriorated further in recent weeks. Given the opportunity to take share in a weakening competitor landscape, ANG is actively continuing its strategic investment though. Taking these factors together, EBITDA

Slower build in Europe amplifies start-up loss there

H1 trading was resilient in the UK, helped by a strong store performance as online annualised tough comparatives (lock-down 3). Sales in Europe didn’t accelerate as much as planned, though, and some changes are required to drive conversion. Lower EU sales mean start-up losses are increasing this year. We are also nervous about the impact of the heatwave post period end and have taken a prudent view, downgrading to the low end of management’s new EBITDA range. Share price weakness had already pri

Cautious optimism ahead of new growth phase

Despite the various challenges (Covid restrictions, Brexit, supply chain disruption), FY’22 results were slightly ahead of upgraded expectations. The angling market is not immune to the well-documented headwinds but, with numerous strategic initiatives strengthening its capabilities, including the recent launch of its EU DC, Angling Direct is cautiously optimistic about the scope to deliver market share gains and begin a new growth phase in Europe. Forecasts have been maintained and valuation is

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 16/03/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: New Energy One Acquisition Corporation Plc, has joined the Main Market (Standard). NEOA is a special purpose acquisition company incorporated in the United Kingdom that has been established to focus on pursuing a Business Combination with targets that are positioned to participate in or benefit from the global transition towards a low carbon economy. Capital raised £175m. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Aquis Exchange (AQX.L) the exchange se

New DC operational in Europe to re-accelerate growth

The group’s new distribution centre in Holland is now fully operational, a significant milestone. With its leading multi-channel model, new EU DC and financial resource to accelerate growth, ANG looks well placed to capitalise on the opportunities ahead, grow its market share and expand profitably. This is not priced in, though, trading on only 3.9x EV/EBITDA to Jan’23 before adding anything in for Europe, where there is clearly a value creation opportunity.

Encouraging year-end update and positive outlook

An in-line Q4 means ANG will deliver recently upgraded EBITDA of at least £5.0m. This includes lost trading days offline (lock-down 3.0), online (cyber incident) and investment to establish its EU fulfilment capability, which launches soon. While alert to the various macro challenges, ANG is well placed to capitalise on the growth opportunities ahead, especially in Europe. With an EV of just £26m, and on 0.3x EV/sales (6x Jan’23 EV/EBITDA), the investment case is compelling.

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

HeiQ - Forecast update and Ecolab contract

HeiQ reported its interim results for the 12-months to December 2023, a period characterised by challenging conditions in the markets in which the company currently operates. In-line with the recent trading update, the company reported revenues of $41.7m for FY23 and closed the period with a cash balance of c$10m and a net debt position of $2.2m. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the FY23 results and HeiQ’s outlook in 2024, leaving our revenue forecast unchanged but adjusting gross margin

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Strong results, growth ahead

Pinewood Technologies’ results for the 13 months to 31 January 2024 confirmed good growth in user numbers, revenue and operating profit for the continuing automotive software business. Our unchanged forecasts (see 6 March research) show strong revenue growth, high margins, and good cash generation over the period to FY26 as the Group executes its accelerated growth plan. As of Tuesday this week, Pinewood’s shares are ex-dividend and a 1-for-20 share consolidation is effective, meaning our discou

LIBERUM: Tortilla Mexican Grill: Prioritising profitability over roll-out

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: FY24 trading in-line and debt reduction ahead of market expectations

At its FY23 results in June 2023, G4M announced its intention to focus on product margins, overhead cost reduction, and efficiency ahead of revenue growth, along with further net debt reduction, in FY24. The FY24 year-end trading update confirms G4M has delivered on these rebalanced priorities, with gross margin rising and net debt almost halving compared with FY23. Cost savings achieved in FY24 and the continued development of higher-margin categories should deliver further upside in FY25E.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

React Group H1 Trading Update

React Group has released a positive update that has confirmed that the strong 2H 2023A momentum has continued into 1H 2024E, with what was described as a ‘record trading performance'.

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.

HeiQ - Acquisition, placing and trading update

HeiQ has announced the acquisition of a site in Portugal where the company intends to build a HeiQ AeoniQ production facility with a 3,000 tonne per year capacity. To support the acquisition, the company intends to raise c£2.44m via an equity placing, supported by the issue of a c£1.7m (€1.97m) convertible loan note (largely to management) that will convert upon completion of the raise. We see this as an important step in the development programme for HeiQ AeoniQ. Additionally, HeiQ has provided