Dunelm Group - Appealing offer

Dunelm Group’s (DNLM’s) H124 results demonstrated the benefits of its strategy of broadening its addressable market by strengthening the core offer and expanding into newer categories, while also growing the store base and marketing more effectively. This is driving growth in the active customer base, who shop with greater frequency, leading to further market share gains in a static market. The broadening appeal of its products is demonstrated by growth being broad-based by geography, customer a

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Good progress already reflected in price

Dunelm has reported total sales growth of 6.2% and LFL of 5.0% for 2Q, comprising in-store LFL of 1.2% and online LFL of 32%. This compares with 2Q 2018/19 in-store and online LFLs of +5.7% and +37.9%. It has also reported Gross Margin up by 110bps against +190bps in the corresponding quarter.

Opportunity knocks

We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrate

Morning Song

Dunelm Group (DNLM LN) Positive performance puts paid to previous problems – shares to rise | Liontrust Asset Management (LIO LN) Good flows but uncertainty prompts caution | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Unchanged FY EPS but Product sales weak. FCF/DPS hit by more PPI | Renold (RNO LN) H1 trading in line, FY19 expectations reiterated

Dunelm Group - Getting the house in order

Dunelm’s new CEO is taking steps to address recent underperformance and build the core brand. These include closing or selling the loss-making Worldstores (WS) businesses; developing a new web platform and introduction of ‘click and collect’; and launching a marketing campaign to raise the brand profile and acquire new customers. Assuming plans are executed successfully, we see upside to consensus forecasts.

Morning Song

Advanced Medical Solutions (AMS LN) Interims mixed | Dunelm Group (DNLM LN) Positive strategic update and multi-channel progress report | Findel (FDL LN) Positive take-aways from Xmas press show | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) Overcoming H1 setbacks to start H2 strongly | Medica Group (MGP LN) Buying opportunity in structural growth market leader | ReNeuron Group (RENE LN) AGM update highlights development progress & licensing discussions | Ten Entertainment Group (TEG LN) Resilient H1 with pos

Morning Song

Dunelm Group (DNLM LN) Resilient Q4 sales but heatwave means higher Sale stock (4% d/grade) | Liontrust Asset Management (LIO LN) FuM +9% in Q1, forecasts unchanged | Mobile Streams (MOS LN) Full year update | ReNeuron Group (RENE LN) In-line FY results highlight hRPC deal & upcoming Phase III start in Stroke | Xaar (XAR LN) Joint investment with Stratasys in newly formed Xaar 3D Ltd

Kiddicare - competitor closures and sales transfer

After an unscheduled warning in May, guidance prudently baked in a continuation of weak end-market demand and consensus EPS reduced by 7%/9% in FY18/FY19 respectively. It would be premature to say this was purely weather-led, but John Lewis weekly data certainly supports this argument. Either way, tough conditions are forcing capacity out of what is still a highly fragmented market with share up for grabs. Mothercare’s downsizing highlights this and Dunelm’s ambitions for Kiddicare are likely to

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

HeiQ - Forecast update and Ecolab contract

HeiQ reported its interim results for the 12-months to December 2023, a period characterised by challenging conditions in the markets in which the company currently operates. In-line with the recent trading update, the company reported revenues of $41.7m for FY23 and closed the period with a cash balance of c$10m and a net debt position of $2.2m. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the FY23 results and HeiQ’s outlook in 2024, leaving our revenue forecast unchanged but adjusting gross margin

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Strong results, growth ahead

Pinewood Technologies’ results for the 13 months to 31 January 2024 confirmed good growth in user numbers, revenue and operating profit for the continuing automotive software business. Our unchanged forecasts (see 6 March research) show strong revenue growth, high margins, and good cash generation over the period to FY26 as the Group executes its accelerated growth plan. As of Tuesday this week, Pinewood’s shares are ex-dividend and a 1-for-20 share consolidation is effective, meaning our discou

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

LIBERUM: Tortilla Mexican Grill: Prioritising profitability over roll-out

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: FY24 trading in-line and debt reduction ahead of market expectations

At its FY23 results in June 2023, G4M announced its intention to focus on product margins, overhead cost reduction, and efficiency ahead of revenue growth, along with further net debt reduction, in FY24. The FY24 year-end trading update confirms G4M has delivered on these rebalanced priorities, with gross margin rising and net debt almost halving compared with FY23. Cost savings achieved in FY24 and the continued development of higher-margin categories should deliver further upside in FY25E.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

React Group H1 Trading Update

React Group has released a positive update that has confirmed that the strong 2H 2023A momentum has continued into 1H 2024E, with what was described as a ‘record trading performance'.

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

PPHE Hotel Group Limited

PPHE has released its usual Q1 trading update (31 March period-end) which reads reassuringly. The outlook says that “the Board remains confident in delivering full year performance in line with market expectations”. Revenue rose by 11.9%, from £68.8m to £77.0m. Growth was 11.0% on a Like-for-like (LFL) basis excluding the first three months of operation from art’otel Zagreb, Croatia. Revenue growth was driven by a rise in occupancy as room rates continued to normalise across both leisure, corpo

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 25 April 2024

25th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: Smart Metering Systems (SMS.L) has delisted from the AIM market What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.