3Q IMS

Halfords 3Q IMS is in our view positive with PBT forecasts for FY 2020 held at £50-55m and good LFL in Retail cycles +5.9% and Autocentres +4.6% where most of new management development work has been focused. Retail Motoring products LFL -2.7% continues to show impacts of discretionary spend softness in our view. Management retains its caution about near term demand prospects overall and its development programme in Autocentres and key aspects of the business overall (notably new integrated webs

Early encouragement

Following the recent 1H Results we are upgrading our recommendation from Hold to Buy. This reflects valuation, the financial disciplines being brought to bear as the company mitigates difficult trading conditions as it is investing and mainly our view that Halfords is beginning to see the benefits of work to make it more future-ready. The re-launch of the suite of group web sites onto an integrated platform in 4Q should help the improvements to date transition from AutoCentres to the Retail busi

Div cut signalled but strategic pivot

Halfords (HFD) has reported 1H PBT of £25.9m against consensus of £22.8m (1H 2018/19 £30.5m) – all numbers pre IFRS 16. It has also maintained current year profit guidance, indicated investment related reduction to consensus for FY 21 and announced that it will cut the full year dividend and re-base FY 21 dividend to 12p.

Reaction

Weaker than previously expected sales in the main Retail business (c85% of Group sales) have resulted in current year profit guidance of “broadly unchanged” being reduced by the company to a range of £50-55m (2018/19 £58m). As the market consensus had moved down to £55m this is effectively a 5% reduction to market consensus which should be seen as positive in our view given market fears.

New Numbers

We are quite tempted to Buy HFD. In our view some of the modernisation stories being worked on in the background are seeing encouraging early results and the aim to move the business onto more of a customerrelationship model is beginning to bear fruit. The forecast reduction guided by the company today – from flat yoy to £50- 55m PBT (£58.8m 2018/19) – suggests that there is still risk in taking that course. But we believe that when we see the Interim results it will become more evident that man

Year of Defence to Come

This note is briefly to update forecasts and Valuation. We found the Prelims, the accompanying analyst meetings and our own discussions with the new management team more positive than we had expected. The current year will be characterised by a major upgrade to online systems alongside running the business as defensively as possible to counter anticipated volatile (and likely weak) demand. This combination may prove relatively benign to the success of the systems piece as it will not have to be

Initial Reaction

In the circumstances of weak and volatile trading we believe that the new management team has done a decent job of managing what was reasonably under its control over the latter part of the year. Strategic changes now have to be balanced against tactical defensive decisions which will limit visibility of recovery potential in the near term.

More strategising and pushing out profit recovery

The problem with new CEOs is that they always feel the need to make their mark on the businesses they have arrived to manage. That’s good if the business is broken and more questionable where it is not. Conceptually we find it difficult to argue with the logic of increasing the service elements of the business, upping own label participation from 50% to 60% over 3-5 years and integrating the online/offline/Retail/Autocentres businesses. But we expect this will be a tougher job than management ex

Morning Song

Clinigen Group (CLIN LN) FY results in line, further acquisitions & placing | CVS Group (CVSG LN) Reassuring tenor to FY18 finals | Halfords Group (HFD LN) New strategic vision launched to build on existing strengths | Itaconix (ITX LN) Focused on commercial progress following recent fundraise | Maistro (MAIS LN) Momentum continuing to build into H2’18 and beyond | Urban&Civic (UANC LN) Contracting parcels, positive developments towards planning | Vp (VP/ LN) Positive H1 update highlights furthe

Halfords Group - A service-led proposition

Halfords has a compelling, differentiated brand strategy that will help it continue to grow its core Motoring and Cycling market shares. Services remain at the heart of the business and investment in this area is expected to accelerate. With earnings expectations now reset and management outlook understandably cautious, we believe that investor focus will now be on the new CEO’s strategic update in September.

Morning Song

Bagir Group (BAGR LN) Strategic partnership with Shandong Ruyi - update | Frontier Smart Technologies Group (FST LN) Challenging Q2’18 results in downgrades | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Groundhog day as HFD guides to another flat year | Miton Group (MGR LN) Rise of nascent funds, income growth potential | Polypipe Group (PLP LN) Expectations unchanged, despite weather impact | Restaurant Group (RTN LN) Reassuring trading update | Sanderson Group (SND LN) Solid H1 highlights reassuring consistency |

Groundhog day as HFD guides to another flat year

We called the stock wrong ahead of these prelims. Instead of market forecasts being upgraded, fresh guidance has led to downgrades. While frustrating for expectant shareholders, this is not a profit warning but a ‘delay’ in the recovery of lost margin (FX mitigation), and an ‘acceleration’ of investment into services and customer capability which should generate a return in outer years. Pending the new CEO’s strategic update in Sept, though, Halfords growth plans in FY20/FY21 are unclear. Includ

2017/18 Prelims Reaction

HFD has achieved Underlying PBT of £71.6m against a (companycompiled) consensus of £71.2m (2016/17 £75.4m -4% yoy). Comments on guidance for 2018/19 suggest that pre-existing consensus PBT of £76.5m will fall to a broadly flat out-turn principally because of price resistance in cycles and further investment in service.

Morning Song

1Spatial (SPA LN) Focusing on key USP | accesso Technology (ACSO LN) Positive AGM statement | Applied Graphene Materials (AGM LN) James Briggs taking graphene to market in Q4’18 | Carador Income Fund (CIFU LN) CLO refinancing activity increases post risk retention ruling finalisation | First Derivatives (FDP LN) Strong growth in all markets | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Further investment + restraint on price rises = 5-6% consensus d/grades | Scapa Group (SCPA LN) Strategic progress and opportunitie

Top Picks for 2023 - 2022 review and outlook for 2023

On 10 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2022, in what turned out to be a very poor twelve months for global equities, due to war, accelerating inflation, political instability and recession fears. Between 7 January 2022 and 31 December 2022, the AIM All-Share Index declined 30.0%, whilst the average performance of our ten top picks was -24.7%, a modest relative outperformance. In this note we discuss the performance of our 2022 top picks, equities trends in 2022, and our

Morning Note – 26 January 2023

SHORE CAPITAL - XP Factory+ (XPF, House Stock at 16p)

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Jan 23

23 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 Jan 23

19 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

YE update – another positive staging post for new team

The YE update shows that strong LFL and operational momentum was sustained in H2. Overall FY22 system sales grew by 20% and LFLs by 21%, led by volume/mix as the new CEOs actions begin to take effect. We make no forecast changes, but the positive H2 profitability trend cited is an important inflection point in the context of DPP now moving to sustainable profits. A well-capitalised balance sheet also means expansion is firmly on the agenda. The key point is that international evidence shows once

Spring is finally coming

The market reacted positively to easyJet’s Q1 trading update as the meaningful pricing tailwind and the continued restoration of load factors allowed for consensus-beating results and guidance. The buoyancy was further fuelled by the low-cost rivals’ promising stance on summer activities. We expect an upgrade in the consensus and to our valuation.

SHORE CAPITAL - Motorpoint Group+ (MOTR) - House Stock at 145p

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Jan 23

24 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

BOTB - Beats forecasts, £6.275m return of capital announced

BOTB prelims were slightly ahead of our forecasts, which we recently raised post the May trading statement. Trading continues to normalise despite the uncertain consumer outlook, driven by constant fine-tuning to changing market conditions. BOTB also declared a 6p/share (£0.565k) final dividend and a £6.275m return of capital via tender offer, equivalent to 66.7p/share; and 72.7p and £6.84m combined. We have increased our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 23% to 53.9p from 43.9p for FY23E, and by 21%

Tintra plc Initiation

Tintra plc (TNT.L) has an ambitious strategy to build new global banking infrastructure. This will be distinct from existing banks and fintechs, as it is specifically designed to finance growth in cross-border trade for emerging economies. The group identified issues in ways that existing banks serve these markets, which often put their customers at a disadvantage vs developed economy equivalents. Tintra believes that only an entirely new global network of regulated financial services providers

Cenkos: Consumer Q1/23

Key Observations Despite a second successive decline in CPI during the quarter, inflation remained at one of the highest levels in 40 years (10.5% in December) contributing to a winter of discontent, with each day in December facing some form of industrial action. The industrial action materially impacted the consumer sector and provided an insight into the simmering frustration around the decline in real wages of the UK population. There were multiple examples of consumer corporate failures d

BOTB - Board strengthening and new forecasts

The group has announced a broadening and strengthening of the board through two new appointments. We introduce an additional two years of forecast and raise our target price to £31.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 01 Feb 23

01 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Cenkos: One Media iP Group Plc -- Trading Update

One Media iP Group has provided a positive trading update for the year ended 31 October 2022 (FY22E), with the core business of music exploitation performing in line with expectations. The company expects to deliver revenues of £5.1m (+16% YoY), slightly ahead of our previous forecast, and an Adj EBITDA of £1.8m. Having previously explored external funding options, One Media iP now plans to retain its anti-piracy subsidiary, TCAT Ltd and fund the next stage of growth from internal resources in o