Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 02 Mar 23

02 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

LIBERUM: Vertu Motors - Easing new car supply drives FY24E upgrade

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Trading in line, cash generation ahead

Vertu has released a trading update for the five months to 31 January showing Group trading is in line and cash generation is better than expected. The integration of Helston Garages is on track, the Group is taking market share in Aftersales, and year-end net debt (ex. leases, incl. stocking loans) is expected to be £80m-£85m versus previous guidance of £100m-£110m. FY24 underlying PBT is upgraded by 8.6% to £47.0m on an improved supply and cost outlook. We remain comfortable with our average v

LIBERUM: Vertu Motors - Helston acquisition an excellent strategic fit

Vertu Motors PLC (VTU LN) - Helston completion

Vertu’s acquisition of Helston Garages Group has completed and we have updated our forecasts, increasing FY24 and FY25 EPS by 18.7% and 24.7%, respectively. This debt-financed transaction takes our forecast FY23 net debt to £105m (incl. stocking loans) or 1.4x EBITDA, but we anticipate this to fall to c. 1.0x EBITDA by FY25. Our updated valuation is now 105.9p per share, offering 102.4% potential upside to investors.

Vertu Motors PLC (VTU LN) - Adding further scale

Vertu has announced the acquisition of Helston, subject to completion, which we anticipate will enhance our FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by 18.7% and 24.7%, respectively. This transaction is debt-financed via securing new funding and extending long term facilities, with FY23 net debt to pro-forma adjusted EBITDA below 1.4x (incl. stocking loans). We expect net debt/EBITDA will revert back towards 1.0x by the end of FY25. Zeus forecasts and valuation estimates will be updated post-completion – we

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 01/11/22

Dish of the day Joiners: Burning Rock Biotech Limited ADS has joined the Main Market (Standard). Leavers: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation ADS has left the Main Market (Standard). What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energy, a UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, intends to join the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS, ranking 2nd by resources and 3rd by produc

Vertu Motors PLC (VTU LN) - Expanding Vertu Motorcycles

Vertu has announced the acquisition of two BMW Motorrad motorcycle outlets in Yorkshire for a total cash consideration of £4.2m. The deal makes Vertu the largest UK partner of BMW Motorrad and increases the number of outlets of the Vertu Motorcycles division to six. The acquired business is not expected to have a significant impact on revenue or profits in the remaining four months of FY23, but should be earnings enhancing in the first full year of ownership. Zeus increase FY24 and FY25 underlyi

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 05/10/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** TECC Capital plc, to be renamed EDX Medical Group, intends to join the AQSE Growth Market. EDX operates a molecular biology and diagnostics laboratory in Cambridge, UK, from which it performs research & development, provides Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing and genomic sequencing services, undertakes quality assurance and has established expertise in the design, development, validati

LIBERUM: Vertu Motors - Positive estimate momentum continues

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 21 Feb 23

21 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Strong FY22 overshadowed by a soft margin outlook

Entain reported estimate-beating FY22 earnings. Net gaming revenue (NGR) increased by 12% in the year, driven by a 66% rise in retail. BetMGM performed strongly and is expected to be EBITDA positive in H2 2023. Entain completed five transactions during the year, further diversifying its revenue base. Underlying EBITDA was up 13%, and adjusted diluted EPS up 15%. However, the guidance was softer than expected and should result in a low single-digit cut to our FY23 estimates.

SHORE CAPITAL - ScS Group+ (SCS, House Stock at 180p)

LIBERUM: Ten Entertainment Group* - Value pricing and innovation driving higher sales density

H1 performance below expectations; strong start to Q3

JDW’s H1 FY23 performance was below our expectations. Compared with FY19, the group’s lfl sales grew by 5% and the adjusted PBT was down 90.9%. Investors cheered the market outperformance during the initial seven weeks of Q3 (+14.9% yoy). The easing of supply chain issues is also a positive. However, the c.10% jump in the stock price jump seems something of an overreaction. Volumes remain under pressure and inflationary/macro-economic headwinds are here to stay, at least in the near-term. We mai

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 13 Mar 23

13 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Inchcape PLC (INCH LN) - FY22 results – small beat to forecasts

Inchcape’s FY22 results are ahead of Zeus forecasts on most measures, with a strong performance across all regions. Underlying trading is said to be in line with expectations, and we don’t anticipate much change to headline forecasts. We remain comfortable with our medium-term SOTP valuation estimate of 1,436p.

BOTB - Beats forecasts, £6.275m return of capital announced

BOTB prelims were slightly ahead of our forecasts, which we recently raised post the May trading statement. Trading continues to normalise despite the uncertain consumer outlook, driven by constant fine-tuning to changing market conditions. BOTB also declared a 6p/share (£0.565k) final dividend and a £6.275m return of capital via tender offer, equivalent to 66.7p/share; and 72.7p and £6.84m combined. We have increased our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 23% to 53.9p from 43.9p for FY23E, and by 21%

SHORE CAPITAL - Marks & Spencer+ (MKS) - House Stock at 142p - FY23 and FY24 upgrades!

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 22 Mar 23

22 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Pendragon (PDG LN) - PBT slightly ahead, strategy progressing

Pendragon has released FY22 results slightly ahead of Zeus estimates set at the 25 January trading update. Underlying PBT (cont. ops) was £59.1m, ahead of our £57.0m forecast and ahead of the £55.3m we forecast at the release of FY21 results on 23 March 2022. This is despite headwinds from cost inflation and faster than expected interest rate rises. Through the year, the Group has made significant strategic progress in relaunching its omnichannel used car proposition, CarStore, and investing in

ME Group - Positive trading momentum has continued

ME Group has confirmed that the strong recovery seen across Continental Europe in H1 has continued throughout H2. Consumer demand has been stronger for all the Group’s services. The Asian market has remained more subdued due to pandemic restrictions remaining in place for longer than in the Group’s other regions. Updated guidance details revenue is now expected to be between £256m and £262m (our forecast £259m) and EBITDA between £82m and £85m (our forecast £84m). Hence, we make no changes to th

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 01 Feb 23

01 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

No surprises in the FY performance

Kingfisher’s FY22 performance was a mixed bag. The Group’s lfl sales declined by 2.1% yoy, with no surprises in the UK and France businesses. The adjusted PBT of £758m (-20.2% yoy) was 2.3% ahead of the market expectations. The FCF softness was a one-off in our opinion. We expect kingfisher to continue to gain market share in the core segments. The strategy to roll out compact store formats and monetize retail media opportunities are steps in the right direction. No major changes expected in ou

Let the Party begin

GVC has now completed its game-changing acquisition of bwin.party, a deal designed to propel the company into the upper reaches of the online gambling industry in terms of size and profitability. The focus now turns to delivering the €125m of projected cost synergies and re-energising bwin’s sizable asset base to drive sustainable growth. We reintroduce our forecasts and expect GVC’s EBITDA to rise from €51m in 2015 to €236.5m in 2017, with strong underlying cash flows driving rapid debt reducti