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12 Jan 2021
A rare sighting
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A rare sighting
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 294 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 5,062m
- Published:
12 Jan 2021 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO -
Pages:
7 -
The lesser spotted ''Christmas'' trading statement
Kingfisher has never before updated the market for trading in January. Today''s announcement, confirming continued strong sales growth, lifts consensus forecasts for FY Jan-21 by c.6%. The company faces some localised restrictions in trading but all stores remain open, and online growth continues to run at c.+150%yoy. We lift our estimates to reflect the strong revenue growth, raise our target price to 340p (from 320p) and reiterate our Outperform rating.
Still benefiting from the nesting trend
Despite some concern, based on high frequency data, that DIY sales trends have slowed, Kingfisher today reported LFL sales growth of +11.4% in November and +22.1% in December. This reflects the opening up of stores in France after lockdown, some calendar effects, and an acceleration of trade (Screwfix). With households increasingly restricted in the early new year, we expect healthy home improvement trends to remain into the Spring: and recall, the company''s Q1 last year was impacted by the decision to keep stores closed, hence the comp base is a -24.8% like for like.
Raising profit forecasts again
In December the company signalled an underlying upgrade to profits albeit this was accompanied by announcing the repayment of UK business rate relief. Today the company had guided that it is ''comfortable'' with the top of consensus, being Adj PBT GBP 742m. We raise our estimate from GBP 700m to GBP 755m. For FY Jan-22 we raise by c.1% from GBP 653m to GBP 660m.
Raising target price to 340p, reiterate Outperform
Our target price rises to 340p. As well as the forecast upgrade we harmonise our WACC assumptions with the rest of the sector, lowering our market risk premium assumption by 50bps as we did for the companies featured in our recent report Many (un)happy returns 2021. At the intraday price of 286p the stock trades on CY21 P/E c.12x and CY22 P/E c.11x, an equity FCF yield of 8%.