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  • 29 May 2025

France wasn't built in a day


Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 291 -7.3 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 5,016m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB

    • 47 pages


 

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France wasn't built in a day


Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 291 -7.3 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 5,016m


  • Published: 29 May 2025
  • Author: Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB
  • Pages: 47
  • BNP Paribas Exane


While we like the Screwfix France, Trade and Marketplace strategy, we think these could take time to meaningfully drive profitable growth. Furthermore, repairs in France are showing limited improvements and we still see cracks in the foundation. Downgrade to Underperform, GBp 235 TP. Why does France matter? France offers a potential profit recovery, the UK is well-established but, in our view, does not justify a premium valuation. Other growth levers may take time to drive material growth outside of the UK. Why has France not worked? Kingfisher France has a weak track record, having lost market share in a weak French DIY market. What is being done in France? Improvements, such as product range corrections, simplifying the organisation, and restructuring the store estate, have not yet led to sustained positive LFL sales growth or enhanced profitability. Why is it not enough? For Kingfisher France to achieve management''s medium-term profit margin target of c.5-7%, it needs to achieve some operational leverage, a 3% sales CAGR (consensus -0.1%), and a c.+150bps increase in gross margins, unless it can cut costs materially. We don''t think this is achievable and model a 2.7% margin. Our analysis suggests that increasing Trade and Online sales penetration could be material profit drivers. However, due to low brand awareness, and steady penetration growth, we believe meaningful profitable growth may take time. c.14x one-year fwd P/E not justified, downgrade to Underperform with TP of GBp 235 Kingfisher shares have rallied +19% YTD and trade above historic average P/E. Our FY26-28 Adj PTP are -2% to -4% below pre-Q1 trading update company consensus. Our DCF-based TP lowers to GBp 235 (from GBp 260). At our TP, it would trade on CY25 and CY26 P/E of 11.5x and c.10x.

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