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25 Mar 2024
FY Results: cuts but no damage
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FY Results: cuts but no damage
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 295 -36.6 (-4.0%) | Mkt Cap: 5,094m
- Published:
25 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
10 -
More than a scratch, but shares rise
Kingfisher FY Jan-25e Adj. PBT guidance was lower than expected. However, the shares rallied, reflecting the short interest levels, a French restructuring plan which isn''t too financially painful, a lower capex guide and multi-year cost savings. We cut our FY Jan-25e Adj. PBT forecasts to around the midpoint of guidance but our target price rises, reflecting lower risks around France and lower spending. The debate on the stock is likely to centre on whether the action in France is fast enough. Whilst downside risk from here seems limited, it could be a long project, and we remain Neutral.
FY Jan-25e profits guided lower
Management guided FY Jan-25e Adj. PBT to GBP 490-550m, a c.7% cut to consensus at the midpoint. We cut to GBP 522m (previously GBP 618m). Sales at the start of Q1 improved sequentially but remain negative, and we assume full year group LFLs of c.-1%. We expect group gross margins to be flat, and a small increase in operating costs net of GBP 120m savings.
French DIY transformation - no big bill for the project
A comprehensive overhaul of the French business was unveiled today, including a management reorganisation and the restructuring of one-third of Castorama''s store estate (c.30 stores). In the medium term, management targets 5-7% margins in France, versus 3.3% last year. Management also cut capex guidance to 3% of sales and said that it aims for GBP c.100m savings in outer years. Investors will question whether the changes in France are sufficient to transform the business but there was no large cost attached to the change programme, which was a relief for the stock.
Remaining Neutral
Investors were braced for a painful restructuring plan, which hasn''t materialised. This has reduced the downside risks, and combined with lower capex and higher cost savings our DCF-derived price target (rolled forward with the passage of time) rises to GBp240. We maintain our Neutral rating.