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29 Jul 2025
H1 preview: a DIY sales slowdown
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H1 preview: a DIY sales slowdown
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 295 -36.6 (-4.0%) | Mkt Cap: 5,094m
- Published:
29 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
15 -
Weak DIY sales data, lower Q2 LFL expectations
At its Q1 sales in May, Kingfisher cautioned against a potential demand pull-forward as well as weakness in Poland. The May and June DIY sales data releases for the UK, France and Poland show weakening sales trends. Consequently, we lower our Q2 like-for-like estimates in UKandI to +1.2% (from +2.0%) and Poland -1.5% (from 0%). With one month still to trade, we see some downside risk to UK and Poland growth in particular. We reiterate our Underperform rating.
Q2 / H1 results due on 23 September
Company compiled-consensus models Q2 like-for-like sales growth for the group at +0.1% year-on-year, with the UK at +1.7%, France at -2.6%, and Poland at -0.8%. July''s DIY sales data releases will be closely monitored: UK Barclaycard on 12 August, Banque de France on 22 August and Statistics Poland on 25 August.
We see downside risk to FY Jan-26 adj. PBT
Kingfisher guides to FY Jan-26 adj. PBT of GBP 480-540m versus company-compiled consensus of GBP 522m and BNPP Exane of GBP 500m (unchanged). As we discussed in France wasn''t built in a day, the UK is a well-established business, but in our view, does not justify a premium valuation. France offers a recovery potential, but it has a poor profit margin track record. Hence, we continue to see downside risk to FY Jan-26 adj. PBT.
Reiterate Underperform and target price of GBp 235 and USD 6.3
We lower our UK and Poland Q2 like-for-like sales growth estimates to reflect the weak DIY sales trends for May and June. We mark-to-market currencies, which offsets our lowered like-for-like estimates. On our unchanged DCF-based target price of GBp 235, Kingfisher trades on a CY25 P/E of 11.5x and CY26 of 10.2x. We reiterate our Underperform rating.