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19 Nov 2020
Not skipping a beat
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Not skipping a beat
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 295 -36.6 (-4.0%) | Mkt Cap: 5,094m
- Published:
19 Nov 2020 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO -
Pages:
6 -
After a 20% beat at H1, further upgrades after Q3
Q3 sales were strong and we expect full year consensus profit upgrades of around 7%, with further upside risk if Q4 continues as it has started. Currently the market views this as setting up a tougher comp base for next year, and we think it unwise to change FY Jan-22 forecasts at this stage. Nevertheless, on next year''s numbers the stock continues to look attractive to us, on a P/E under 12x and FCF yield over 8%. The market might not want to buy into ''work-from-home stocks'' but we see self-help under a new management team and see value here still.
Strong, but as expected
There was already enough industry data out there to suggest that Kingfisher would beat formal sell-side expectations in Q3, which it duly did. The market was always likely to place disproportionate emphasis on current trading so far in November particularly as it falls within the second lockdown. Trading in these two weeks is well ahead of the street for Q4 (+12.6% vs c.+3%) but was a deceleration from Q3 (LFLs +17.4%). The market is looking past the current financial year and shrugged off the profit upgrade: we raise Adj.PBT from GBP735m to GBP810m.
Just building tougher comps for itself?
Kingfisher quantified the temporary cost savings this year at GBP175m, and this helps to control expectations for FY Jan-22e (our forecasts are essentially unchanged at Adj.PBT GBP667m). Just as importantly, however, the company is getting on with its self-help strategy: closing Castorama stores, re-instating installation services at BandQ, expanding Screwfix in Republic of Ireland, introducing new ranges and driving higher online penetration. Margins in France had fallen to just 4.0% before COVID, and the market share gains are encouraging for margin recovery prospects.
Maintain outer year forecasts, maintain Outperform
The market is focused on FY Jan-22e earnings which are unchanged, explaining today''s negative stock reaction. But on...