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22 Sep 2020
Rebuilding profitability (and 15 questions)
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Rebuilding profitability (and 15 questions)
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 290 -2.6 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 5,006m
- Published:
22 Sep 2020 -
Author:
Warwick Okines -
Pages:
11 -
H1 results and current trading beat expectations
Kingfisher''s H1 profits comfortably beat consensus by c.20% and our own forecasts by c.12%. Current trading remains strongly double-digit across almost all banners and categories. It takes both commercial and strategic momentum into the second half of the year. Growth rates will fade and investors may be concerned about tough comparatives, but even on profits that fall next year Kingfisher is the cheapest stock in our coverage on CY21 EV/EBIT. We maintain our Outperform.
Responsibly harvesting the near term benefits
The Covid-19 situation has favoured Kingfisher in relative terms, with strong demand and material cost saving potential, and the business has responded exceptionally well to the challenge of the channel shift towards online. Profits look likely to be substantially ahead of prior expectations: we have raised full year EPS by 21%. At the same time the company is repaying the UK furlough scheme and considering repaying its EUR 600m Term facility that is backed by the French State.
Building the strategy for 2021 and beyond
We find plenty to like about Kingfisher''s strategy. It is pragmatic, empowers the retail banners, is focused on the top line and growth opportunities for trade and discount segments. Good progress is also being made in reducing inventories, complexity and disruption. We think the early market share gains are likely to continue, and show three charts which illustrate the opportunity for the group, as well as suggesting 15 questions for management inside.
Another forecast upgrade; target price up to 325p
The strong business momentum drives our Jan-21 EPS upgrade of 21% and higher year end net cash forecast (GBP 600m ex IFRS-16) but our outer year forecasts are left relatively unchanged: at this stage we assume that the beat this year broadly sets a higher bar for next year, rather than assuming profitability has step-changed. Even still, with the stock trading...