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17 Sep 2024
First Take: Kingfisher - 1H25 results ahead
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First Take: Kingfisher - 1H25 results ahead
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 295 -36.6 (-4.0%) | Mkt Cap: 5,094m
- Published:
17 Sep 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
FY25 guidance range narrowed, helped by one-off £25m business rates refund
Management has tightened previous FY guidance, which is now for FY25 adjusted PBT of £510m-£550m (prev .£490m to £550m, with Vuma consensus at £509m; INVe £519m), down on FY24 PBT of £568m. We expect FY25 consensus PBT to move up c.4.1% towards £530m to reflect the one-off £25m business rate refund, with FY26 consensus unlikely to change materially in our view at this stage. Free cash flow guidance has been increased to £410m to £460m (prev. c.£350m to £410m). The Group remains focused on driving market share, with strategic focus being new differentiated formats, Trade; building a data-led experience; ecommerce plus marketplace; and greener home solutions.
Solid UK performance with Poland the stand-out. Early days in turning around France
For 6 months to end July, 1H adjusted PBT fell 0.5% to £334m (cons. £286m) on total Group sales down 1.4% (Q1 -0.9%). This was supported by: 1) £25m of business rates refunds at B&Q (a one-off), 2) H1-weighted cost savings, and 3) H2-weighted tech costs (flat in H1). Core categories remained resilient with ‘big-ticket’ and seasonal impacted by a weak market backdrop and weather. A flat YoY 1H25 DPS of 3.8p has been declared. The Group has completed £150m of its £300m buy-back.
1H UK sales were up 0.9% (1Q +2.6%) with Trading EBIT up 6.2% to £325m (cons. £286m) post the £25m business rate refund. A solid performance with Screwfix and Tradepoint continuing to outperform B&Q.
France sales down 9.2% (1Q total -8.1/LFL -5.3%) with Trading EBIT down 32% to £69m (cons. £72m). It is still early days, post restructuring, in simplifying & driving productivity and testing new formats, with management targeting a 5-7% recovered EBIT margin (FY24 3.3%).
Poland sales were up 6.9% with LFL down 0.2% (1Q total +8.6%/LFL +0.4%), helped by an improving consumer backdrop, with Trading EBIT up 41% to £50m (cons £36m).
Downgrade cycle appears to have finished
Kingfisher is well-positioned to benefit from operational leverage when demand comes back. We appear to be at the end of the downgrade cycle which is likely to be taken positively today, although the share price has started to anticipate this (share price is up 4%/19% over the last month/YTD). Shares are trading on a CY25E PE of .11.8x on cyclically depressed profits.