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21 May 2024
First Take: Kingfisher - 1Q24 trading in-line
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First Take: Kingfisher - 1Q24 trading in-line
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 294 -5.3 (-0.6%) | Mkt Cap: 5,066m
- Published:
21 May 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
1Q trading in line with expectations
Total 1Q Group sales down 0.3% (+0.3% CC) with LFL sales down 0.9% including a +1.9% calendar impact (of which +1.1% is due to the leap year which will unwind as the year progresses). UK & Ireland took market share, with France sales broadly in line with the market and Poland’s sales trends improving supported by a stronger market. Overall, core sales (66% of sales) were resilient, with seasonal sales also resilient despite unfavourable weather, and big ticket demand was weak in-line with the market.
By main divisions, UK sales were up 1.2% (consensus -1.2%; Q4 +0.8%) with B&Q and Screwfix up 0.4% (cons -1.5%; Q4 +0.4%) and +2.4% (cons -0.9%; Q4 +1.4%) respectively. In France, LFL sales were down 5.3% (cons -5.3%; Q4 -8%) with Castorama and Brico Depot LFL down 5.5% (cons -5.2%; Q4 -8%) and down 5.2% (cons -5.4%; Q4 -7.9%) respectively. Poland LFL grew 0.4% (cons -2.2%; Q4 6.6%).
No change to outlook
Management has reiterated FY25 guidance for adjusted PBT in the range of £490m-£550m (INVe £519m, company-compiled consensus £512m). 2Q trading has been in-line with underlying Q1 sales trends (-2.8%), with Group LFL sales -2.5 % (3 weeks to 18 May). They remain cautious near term given the lag between housing demand and home improvement demand, with repair, maintenance and renovation on existing homes resilient. The dynamics are slightly different by market going forward, with the UK against weak comps in 1H, with comps getting easier for France and Poland as the year progresses. Consensus expectation is for 1H PBT of £290m.
Undemanding valuation. Reiterate BUY
Kingfisher is well-positioned to benefit from operational leverage when demand comes back. No guidance downgrade today is likely to be taken positively by the market and it appears we may be at the end of the downgrade cycle, although consumer demand short term is likely to remain subdued. Valuation (CY25E PE 11x; DPS yield 4.7%) is undemanding given robustness of cashflow with the share buyback programme ongoing. Management have reiterated their FY25 FCF target of £350m-£410m.