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17 Jun 2020
First Take: Kingfisher - FY20 results + new strategy
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First Take: Kingfisher - FY20 results + new strategy
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 291 -9.3 (-1.1%) | Mkt Cap: 5,009m
- Published:
17 Jun 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
FY20 results broadly in-line
FY20 reported IFRS 16 pre-exceptional PBT post P&L transformation costs was £544m vs INVe £554m/company-compiled consensus £558m. No FY dividend declared as expected. Year-end net cash was £37m (FY19 £84m). LFL growth from Screwfix, Poland and Romania offset by weaker sales at B&Q, France, Russia and Iberia. Benefits from Group buying and sourcing largely offset by incremental clearance and logistics & stock inefficiencies in France.
Initial focus was on improving France (Castorama in particular) and implementing a new trading approach, rebalancing activity between Group and local, improving click & collect/home delivery and focusing on fewer initiatives within the business (paused some of the range change in FY21). This resulted in improved LFL performance pre-Covid, as already reported.
New ‘Powered by Kingfisher’ strategy – logical, but lacks any real detail
This is an evolution of ‘ONE Kingfisher’, as expected, though it lacks detail as to the shape of the store portfolio, cost savings and working capital opportunities. Focus is on developing distinct retail banners (it seems to be keeping both Castorama and Brico Depot format in France), addressing diverse customer needs, 'powered' by the Group. The strategy is to move to a simpler local operating model with an agile culture, looking to build a ‘mobile-first’ customer experience and grow differentiation via own brands. An operating model ‘u-turn’ with more commercial decisions being devolved back to the individual operating companies, as already hinted at, with buying and IT still centralised. New store concepts will be tested in the coming months. The company intends to go through with the divestment of Russia, but will keep Iberia now.
Upward pressure on forecasts given strong current trading; no formal FY21 guidance
Since Covid-19 impacted, Kingfisher has seen an improving relative sales trend (Group LFL sales moved from -74.0% in the first week of April to more than +25% since the second week of May). In May, UK sales +15.5%, France +24% and Poland +16% were helped by stores reopening/lifting lockdown.
Improved financial liquidity, helped by strong current trading, with access to £3bn of cash as at 12 June, including £2bn cash at bank.
Our forecasts/TP/recommendation are under review.