Resilient FY23 performance Kingfisher last updated the market in November when it reported Q3 total group sales +1.7% with LFL +0.2% (3-year LFL +15.3%). Q3 UK LFL sales were down 2.3% (3-year LFL +12.9%), impacted by the prolonged warm weather in October. Weather and petrol strikes also impacted France with Q3 LFLs up 0.5% (3-year LFL +1.6%), while Poland’s performance continued to be strong, with LFLs up 7.6% YoY (3-year LFL + 21.3%). Management commented that trading was stronger in the first three weeks of Q4 to 19 November, versus Q3, with group LFL +2.8% (3-year LFL +15.3%). Management guidance was for FY23 adjusted PBT to be in the range of £730m to £760m. We are forecasting FY23E PBT of £741m, with company-compiled consensus also £741m. By key division, we are forecasting UK & Ireland EBIT £564m (cons £559m), France EBIT £197m (cons £210m) and Poland EBIT £181m (cons £174m). Focus to be on outlook, strategic progress & feedback on recent initiatives, such as online developments/marketplace Focus will be on the industry outlook for FY23 for Kingfisher’s three key geographies, and in particular the UK as Kingfisher’s most important market by profit. The performance of its trade formats (Tradepoint/Screwfix) is expected to have held up better than DIY. The backdrop is likely to remain challenging, with material inflationary headwinds still in place. We are looking for a progress update on the ‘Powered by Kingfisher’ strategy, especially the potential to drive higher margins in France having completed its ‘fixes’ in 2H and its exclusive brand (OEB) strategy as work continues to make the individual banners more distinctive. Also, we look for some performance feedback on management’s more longer-term growth initiatives, such as 1) online; 2) B&Q Marketplace, launched in UK in March 2022 and the Spanish/Portuguese ecommerce marketplace launched more recently; 3) Screwfix France, which was launched online in April 2022 and first c.5 stores opening in 2H23; 4) compact store and store rightsizing performance; 5) growth of its DIFM installation services and its Needhelp marketplace; and 6) the take-up of its energy-saving tools and services in the UK and France. Valuation (CY23E PE 9.9x) does not look demanding, given cash generation and balance sheet strength. However, we believe the shares are unlikely to perform until there is better visibility on consumer demand as inflationary pressures persist.