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24 Nov 2022
First Take: Kingfisher - Q3 update
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First Take: Kingfisher - Q3 update
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 291 -8.7 (-1.0%) | Mkt Cap: 5,013m
- Published:
24 Nov 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Resilient performance
Resilient performance with total sales up 1.7% in constant currency and LFL +0.2%. Q3 UK LFL sales were down 2.3%, France up 0.5% and Poland up 7.6% YoY. UK sales were impacted by warmer weather in October as was France, which also had footfall impacted by petrol station strikes. On a 3-year basis versus pre-COVID levels, UK LFLs were +12.9%, France +14.6% and Poland +23.1%.
Management comments that, while the market backdrop remains challenging, DIY sales continue to be supported by new industry trends such as more working from home and a clear step-up in customer investment in energy saving and efficiency. DIFM and trade activity also continues to be well supported by robust pipelines for home improvement work.
Strategically, KGF has launched its first Screwfix store in France (4-5 planned by year end) and energy-saving tools in France & the UK. It also launched its e-commerce marketplace in Spain and Portugal.
No change to forecast
Q4 has started well. For the 3 weeks to 19th November, LFL sales were up 2.8%.
FY23 guidance is £730m to £760m versus previous guidance of £770m with trading scenarios for the balance of H2 providing a potential range of outcomes of c.£730m to £770m. The trim of £10m to the top end reflects a cost-of-living payment to UK colleagues, investment in Screwfix France, and slightly higher energy costs. The market is already there with company compiled consensus of £742m.
Retain Hold recommendation
Valuation (CY23E PE 9.1x) is not that demanding. Kingfisher is in a robust financial position, given its strong balance sheet, to ride out short term economic pressures. However, we believe the shares are unlikely to perform until investors are prepared to look through the inflationary pressures and higher interest rates ahead. Hold recommendation retained.