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26 Sep 2023
Kingfisher : Approaching the end of the downgrade cycle? - Buy
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Kingfisher : Approaching the end of the downgrade cycle? - Buy
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 294 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 5,062m
- Published:
26 Sep 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
1H results were weaker than market expectations due to Poland, which more than offset slightly better-than-expected UK & France performance. Adjusted Group PBT fell 29% to £336m, with Retail profit down in every geography, as expected, reflecting a more challenging consumer environment.
The UK & Ireland was the most robust, helped by DIFM/trade sales growth, resilient DIY but seasonal sales were weak. 3.9% UK sales growth and a flat gross margin were not enough to offset 8.9% opex inflation, so 1H retail profits were down 10%. In France, retail profits fell 22% with sales down 3.8% (const FX), impacted by a challenging consumer environment and bad weather.
Poland was impacted by macro challenges, with slower market growth than expected and YoY comparables were tough. Performance was weak across core, big ticket and seasonal. Gross margin was down 170bps, reflecting higher customer participation in promotional activity, clearance and mix.
Underlying trading was weaker than the FY24 PBT guided downgrade from c.£634m to £590m. Management has pulled back on expansionary capex investment in Europe with lower new store numbers now guided in Poland & France. FY24 guidance for ‘New Businesses’ is a £30m loss (prev: £40m loss).
FY24E/FY25E PBT cut by 8%/10% reflecting new FY24 PBT guidance. FY24E/FY25E EPS fall by 9%/6% reflecting the buy-back. Our TP drops to 255p (prev 265p), now based on 10x CY24E PE (prev 10x CY23E PE).
Upgrade to BUY as the valuation (CY24E PE 8.6x; DPS yield 5.6%) is undemanding and we believe we are approaching the end of the downgrade cycle, although we recognise the shares are unlikely to perform until investors are prepared to look through the current weak consumer environment.