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30 Jun 2020
Kingfisher : Challenging times ahead - Sell
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Kingfisher : Challenging times ahead - Sell
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 295 -36.6 (-4.0%) | Mkt Cap: 5,094m
- Published:
30 Jun 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
14 -
No grand 5-year strategy update this time round from Thierry Garnier and no quantitative financial targets for the first time in over 20 years of covering Kingfisher. Mr Garnier gave a particularly damning review of the poorly implemented ‘ONE Kingfisher’, disagreeing with the previous management’s view.
We find the new ‘Powered by Kingfisher’ strategy underwhelming. Detail is lacking with many questions left unanswered. Whilst keeping the best of ‘ONE Kingfisher’ and returning to more distinctive trading banners makes sense, time has been lost. Structural pressures have increased with much still needing to be done to turn KGF into an agile business.
Upgrading FY21E PBT by 29%, but reducing FY22E by 9% reflecting very strong current trading (Q2 Group LFLs up 21.8% to 13 June versus Q1 down 24.8%) and a pull forward from 2021.
2021 demand environment expected to be challenging. We would cautious against reading too much into current trading patterns. DIY has definitely been popular during lockdown, but we believe demand has been pulled forward. Rising unemployment later in the year is expected to weigh on consumer demand and hit retail spending in 2021.
Brexit is a relatively big issue for Kingfisher compared with most retailers as 60% of its sales are in Europe. Since 2016, we estimate the Kingfisher P&L has had an £81m transactional benefit from weaker sterling. FX could become a headwind once trade talks are agreed (or not).
Downgrade to Sell from Hold. The shares have rallied 73% from their low on 20 March. We still struggle to see where sustainable long-term growth will come from given the structural challenges Kingfisher faces. TP, based on a high single-digit CY21E PE, cut to 170p from 175p reflecting forecast changes.