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21 May 2020
Kingfisher : Larger stores paying off - Hold
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Kingfisher : Larger stores paying off - Hold
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 291 -9.3 (-1.1%) | Mkt Cap: 5,009m
- Published:
21 May 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
Recent Q1 trading update was better than expected, with Kingfisher benefiting from being an essential retailer and trading through lockdown in some form. In addition, with people spending so much time in their homes, they turned to DIY and gardening projects, particularly in the UK and Poland.
Upgrading FY21E PBT by 19% to reflect the stronger start to the year. Momentum seems to have continued into Q2 and peak trading (August) is yet to come in France. Stronger sales are likely to have been offset by higher operating costs associated with the implementation of social distancing, though Kingfisher does have the advantage of larger stores which makes it easier to trade. We leave our FY20E forecast unchanged as the year ended pre-COVID.
Immaterial changes to FY22E, as we have concerns that the consumer generally is going to emerge from this pandemic with higher levels of debt and we foresee a significant step up in unemployment. As a result, we expect non-food spending to come under pressure, particularly as more leisure activities start to reopen and the consumer has to prioritise spending. Having spent on DIY in 2020, the category may not be so strong next year.
We await Mr Garnier’s strategic update, due with Kingfisher’s FY20 results (date yet to be confirmed), on how the new team is progressing with sorting out the poorly implemented ‘ONE Kingfisher’ strategy devised by the previous team. We are looking for him to address the long term structural pressures the Group has been under from the shift online, which is expected to accelerate with COVID-19, and the move from DIY to DIFM.
Reiterate HOLD. We struggle to see where longer term sustainable growth will come from. Our TP, based on high single digit CY21E PE, rises to 175p.