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16 Oct 2019
Kingfisher : No sign of an inflection point - Sell
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Kingfisher : No sign of an inflection point - Sell
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 295 -36.6 (-4.0%) | Mkt Cap: 5,094m
- Published:
16 Oct 2019 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
15 -
Thierry Garnier, who joined as CEO on 25th September, inherits a business structurally challenged in its key markets, where sales/market share are in decline, and it is difficult to identify the longer term growth story.
Little profit progression 3.5 years into the ‘ONE Kingfisher’ transformation, despite an estimated £87m of FX translational benefits and c.£200m of GNFR & unified/unique sourcing benefits. Pre IFRS 16 underlying Group PBT increased by just 5% between FY16 and FY19. Adjusted for the positive FX and transformation benefits and the negative clearance/disruption costs, underlying FY19 PBT has fallen £228m, or 34%, versus FY16’s £670m
We downgrade FY20e/FY21e reported PBT post IFRS16 by 6%/9%, driven by weaker sales. Our TP falls to 190p (prev 200p) with the downgrade partially offset by peer group re-rating.
3 immediate priorities for new CEO Mr Garnier are to: 1) rebuild the senior leadership team; 2) decide whether he agrees with the principles of ONE Kingfisher; and 3) adopt (or not) the ‘GoodHomes’ vision of the future of DIY where customers need complete solutions, rather than being product-led.
Completing the ‘ONE Kingfisher’ vision is logical, as breaking up the business would result in dis-economies of scale and would be a high risk strategy, in our view, given the Group’s underlying profitability is far from stable.
Reiterate Sell. Valuation is not overly demanding, but we believe it is not compelling enough to compensate for the execution risk and potentially limited long term growth opportunities.