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19 Nov 2021
Kingfisher : Q3 sales – Good momentum - Hold
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Kingfisher : Q3 sales – Good momentum - Hold
Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON) | 291 -9.3 (-1.1%) | Mkt Cap: 5,009m
- Published:
19 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
Good momentum continued in Q3, although the rate of growth slowed as up against tougher comps. Total Q3 Group sales were down 4.2% ex Russia, with the 2 year LFL basis +15% (Q2 +20%). Good sales performance was seen from all banners and categories on a 2-year basis, across both retail and trade channels. UK 2 year LFL +15.7% (Q2 +24.1%) with B&Q up 17.1% (Q2 +26.5%) and Screwfix +13% (Q2 +18.7%). In France, 2 year LFL +14.1% (Q2 +16.4%) with Castorama +15.7% (Q2 +14.7%) and Brico Depot +12.4% (Q2 +18.4%). All stores remain open. Romania has limited access to stores with restrictions currently expected to last until early December.
Despite supply chain challenges, management is comfortable with stock availability and continue to manage it effectively, with availability improving.
Momentum has continued into Q4, with LFL sales to 13 November on a 2-year basis up 13.2%.
Guiding to FY22 adjusted PBT towards the top end of the previous guidance range of £910m-950m, although company-compiled consensus is already there at £952m. H2 21/22 LFL sales: expected to be towards the higher end of previously guided range (-7% to -3%; corresponding 2-year LFLs of +9% to +13%)
Move to HOLD from SELL: With the share price at our TP, we move our recommendation back to HOLD. We expect demand to normalise as discretionary spending switches back to leisure and other retail categories. This is reflected in forecasts with profits expected to be lower next year. Ultimately, Kingfisher is still a big box retailer and the structural challenges from the shift online, rise of the discounters, and the underlying ‘do it for me’ trend have not gone away, in our view.