''Why does it always rain on me?'' sang Travis in their hit single in 1999. Following multiple profit warnings, restructurings, CAPEX cuts, dividend cuts, and management changes, shareholders of Travis Perkins may be feeling the same. We think it''s time to change the tune. UK macro is (slowly) improving, leading indicators look to have bottomed, and valuation is compelling. The road may be bumpy - indeed we lower our ests to factor in FY23 - but with reset expectations and better expected macro and FCF, our TP rises, implying 33% upside. We see good risk/reward and upgrade to OP. UK macro has gone from bad to less bad We''re not out of the woods...but the forest is less dense. Although monetary conditions have tightened in recent months, they are more supportive than a year ago. Moreover, UK housebuilders are sounding increasingly upbeat, and leading indicators on housing and consumer sentiment are turning. Is it a value trap? No - look at the bigger picture Many clients are concerned Travis is a value trap. We don''t think so. TPK is the leader in UK distribution with an attractive competitive position. Smaller family-owned competitors lack the scale to compete with TPK''s level of service. Private equity backed peers are busy taking cost out. Against this backdrop, TPK could gain market share. At 0.4x EV/sales 25E, shares are 38% below the long-term average. Our FCF-based TP implies 33% upside; and our SoTP implies +37% upside. Estimates have reset (including ours). We upgrade to Outperform We think FY23 marked the bottom for Travis results. Lfl comps improved sequentially in 1Q24 with volumes surprising positively. Not much has to go right for Travis to surprise positively. We belatedly lower estimates to integrate full year 2023, but still stand +6%/+23% ahead of FY24 / FY25 consensus (also updated). Our FCF-based TP rises to GBp1011 (from GBp819). Upgrade to OP.