Further volume recovery in Q121. Trading update 15th April 2021 Travis Perkins will publish its Q121 trading update on the 15th April 2021. We forecast c. +8.6% lfl revenue growth (excluding Wickes), driven by strong renovation trends and continued recovery across most end-markets. 2021 offers a lot of room to surprise positively Supportive housing policies and low interest rates have propelled housing transactions, which have increased by +33% YoY in the last 3 months. We believe the outlook for distributors and Travis Perkins is brightening and view the company guidance and consensus expectations as too cautious, offering plenty of room to surprise positively. Our more optimistic earnings expectations stand +13% above consensus We increase our top-line and earnings expectations by +4% and +10% respectively as we turn more positive on the UK renovation market outlook. Our FY21 EBIT expectation now stands +13% above consensus. We have not yet reflected deconsolidated Wickes as part of the planned demerger in our earnings estimates. Strategic update in Q3 is the key catalyst As the deconsolidation of Wickes is set to be effective at the end of April, we turn the page and view the group upcoming investor day in Q321 as the key catalyst. We expect the focus will be on capital allocation, including shareholder return policies and long-term CAPEX/MandA strategies. Rating and target price Our higher earnings expectations drive our target price to GBp1,810/share (from GBp1,650), suggesting 10% upside. We anticipate FY21 consensus earnings to increase as the reporting season highlights stronger UK macro trends. We reiterate our Outperform rating.