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  • 01 Apr 2025

First Take: Travis Perkins - FY24 results OK, but warning for FY25


Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON) | 525 -112.8 (-3.9%) | Mkt Cap: 1,115m


  • Investec Bank
    • Aynsley Lammin

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: Travis Perkins - FY24 results OK, but warning for FY25


Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON) | 525 -112.8 (-3.9%) | Mkt Cap: 1,115m


  • Published: 01 Apr 2025
  • Author: Aynsley Lammin
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


Our view Delayed FY24 results are bit better than expected at the operating profit line and with net debt excluding leases being reduced significantly. This is a relief given initial concerns around the delay to the FY24 results. However, the outlook is worse than expected for FY25, with a difficult start for the Merchanting business, which is still seeing modest volume decline. The FY25 profit guidance implies a substantial cut of c.18-20% to FY25 consensus profit estimates. The shares have been very weak recently, but with the recent departure of the CEO and Merchanting still facing structural challenges, there remains significant uncertainty around the outlook for the Group and the weak profit guidance for this year will not be helpful today. Results summary FY24 results show adjusted Group operating profit a bit better than expected at £141m (-23%) and £152m including property profits. Revenue was 4.7% lower (-5.3% LFL) at £4,607m on weak volumes, price deflation and underperformance in Merchanting. Merchanting saw LFL sales decline by 6.8% and profit fall by 30% with margins at 3.9%. Toolstation total profit was £21m, with Toolstation UK profit up by 47.8% at £34m and a £12m loss in Toolstation Benelux. Toolstation France was closed. Group exceptional items were £139m. Adjusted EPS were 36.6p (-32.7%) and the DPS is cut by 19.4% to 14.5p. IFRS16 leverage is 2.5x, from 2.6x last year. Net debt before leases reduced by £123m to £191m. Outlook comments point to another difficult year with a mixed start to trading in 2025. Trading conditions in Merchanting continue to be difficult, with volumes still modestly lower but pricing stable. Toolstation has started the year more positively and continues to deliver good growth. Given the trading backdrop and the operational turnaround challenges, the Board expects FY25 adjusted operating profit to be broadly in line with FY24, excluding property profits. The Nominations Committee has commenced a search to identify the right long-term successor to Pete as CEO. Valuation Shares are down by 25% YTD and on our pre-existing forecasts reside on FY25E PE and EBITDA multiples of c.12x and c.6x respectively.

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